Graduate Group in Ecology, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
Ecol Lett. 2021 Jul;24(7):1400-1407. doi: 10.1111/ele.13756. Epub 2021 Apr 24.
The interaction between endogenous dynamics and exogenous environmental variation is central to population dynamics. Although investigations into the effects of changing mean climate are widespread, changing patterns of variation in environmental forcing also affect dynamics in complex ways. Using wavelet and time series analyses, we identify a regime shift in the dynamics of a moth species in California from shorter to longer period oscillations over a 34-year census, and contemporaneous changes in regional precipitation dynamics. Simulations support the hypothesis that shifting precipitation dynamics drove changes in moth dynamics, possibly due to stochastic resonance with delayed density-dependence. The observed shift in climate dynamics and the interaction with endogenous dynamics mean that predicting future population dynamics will require information on both climatic shifts and their interaction with endogenous density-dependence, a combination that is rarely available. Consequently, models based on historical data may be unable to predict future population dynamics.
内源性动态与外源性环境变化的相互作用是种群动态的核心。尽管对于气候变化均值影响的研究已经很广泛，但环境强迫变化模式同样以复杂的方式影响动态。我们使用小波和时间序列分析，在加利福尼亚州的一种飞蛾物种 34 年的普查中，从较短到较长周期的波动中识别出动态的状态转变，以及同时出现的区域降水动态的变化。模拟支持了这样的假设，即降水动态的转变驱动了飞蛾动态的变化，这可能是由于随机共振与滞后密度依赖性有关。观察到的气候动态转变及其与内源性动态的相互作用意味着，预测未来的种群动态将需要关于气候转变及其与内源性密度依赖性相互作用的信息，而这种组合很少有。因此，基于历史数据的模型可能无法预测未来的种群动态。
