Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences, University of Bologna, Via Irnerio 42, 40126, Bologna, Italy.
Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences, University of Bologna, Via Irnerio 42, 40126, Bologna, Italy.
Environ Res. 2021 Sep;200:111150. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111150. Epub 2021 Apr 21.
Pollinosis and allergic asthma are respiratory diseases of global relevance, heavily affecting the quality of life of allergic subjects. Since there is not a decisive cure yet, pollen allergic subjects need to avoid exposure to high pollen allergens concentrations. For this purpose, pollen forecasting is an essential tool that needs to be reliable and easily accessible. While forecasting methods are rapidly evolving towards more complex statistical and physical models, the use of simple and traditional methods is still preferred in routine predictions. In this review, we summarise and explain the main parameters considered when forecasting pollen, and classify the different forecasting methods in two groups: observation-based and process-based. Finally, we compare these approaches based on their usefulness to allergic patients, and discuss possible future developments of the field.
花粉症和过敏性哮喘是具有全球相关性的呼吸道疾病，严重影响过敏患者的生活质量。由于目前尚无决定性的治愈方法，花粉过敏患者需要避免接触高浓度的花粉过敏原。为此，花粉预报是一种必不可少的工具，需要可靠且易于获取。虽然预测方法正在迅速向更复杂的统计和物理模型发展，但在常规预测中仍更倾向于使用简单传统的方法。在这篇综述中，我们总结并解释了预测花粉时考虑的主要参数，并将不同的预测方法分为两类：基于观测的和基于过程的。最后，我们根据对过敏患者的有用性比较了这些方法，并讨论了该领域未来可能的发展。
