Pham Uyen, Luu Quoc, Tran Hien
Economic Mathematics, University of Economics and Law, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Quantitative and Computational Finance, John von Neumann Institute, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Soft comput. 2021;25(12):7877-7885. doi: 10.1007/s00500-021-05801-6. Epub 2021 Apr 19.
Developing a hedging strategy to reduce risk of losses for a given set of stocks in a portfolio is a difficult task due to cost of the hedge. In Vietnam stock market, cross-hedge is involved hedging a long position of a stock because there is no put option for the stock. In addition, only VN30 stock index futures contracts are traded on Hanoi Stock Exchange. Inspired by recently achievement of deep reinforcement learning, we explore feasibility to construct a hedging strategy automatically by leveraging cooperative multi-agent in reinforcement learning techniques without advanced domain knowledge. In this work, we use 10 popular stocks on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, and VN30F1M (VN30 Index Futures contracts within one month settlement) to develop a stock market simulator (including transaction fee, tax, and settlement date of transactions) for reinforcement learning agent training. We use daily return as input data for training process. Results suggest that the agent can learn trading and hedging policy to make profit and reduce losses. Furthermore, we also find that our agent can protect portfolios and make positive profit in case market collapses systematically. In practice, this work can help Vietnam's stock market investors to improve performance and reduce losses in trading, especially when the volatility cannot be controlled.
由于套期保值成本,为投资组合中的特定股票集制定套期保值策略以降低损失风险是一项艰巨的任务。在越南股票市场,交叉套期保值涉及对股票的多头头寸进行套期保值,因为该股票没有看跌期权。此外,河内证券交易所仅交易VN30股指期货合约。受近期深度强化学习成果的启发,我们探索了在无需高级领域知识的情况下,利用强化学习技术中的合作多智能体自动构建套期保值策略的可行性。在这项工作中,我们使用胡志明证券交易所的10只热门股票以及VN30F1M(一个月内结算的VN30股指期货合约)来开发一个股票市场模拟器(包括交易费用、税费和交易结算日期),用于强化学习智能体训练。我们将日回报率用作训练过程的输入数据。结果表明,智能体可以学习交易和套期保值策略以实现盈利并减少损失。此外,我们还发现,在市场系统性崩溃的情况下,我们的智能体可以保护投资组合并实现正利润。在实践中,这项工作可以帮助越南股票市场投资者提高交易绩效并减少损失,尤其是在波动率无法控制的情况下。