[Spatial distribution of carbon storage in natural secondary forest based on geographically weighted regression expansion model.].

To accurately assess carbon storage and its spatial distribution in natural secondary forest at the regional scale, we constructed seven expansion models by modifying the geographically weighted regression (GWR) in aspects of spatial dimension, parameter heterogeneity and residual spatial autocorrelation, based on data collected from 165 bureau level permanent plots in Langxi Forest Farm of Wangqing Forestry Bureau in Jilin Province. Stand factor, topography factor, and soil factor were selected as the influencing factors. The expansion models included geographically and altitudinal weighted regression (GAWR), semiparametric geographically weighted regression (SGWR), semiparametric geographically and altitudinal weighted regression (SGAWR), geographically weighted regression Kriging (GWRK), geographically and altitudinal weighted regression Kriging (GAWRK), semiparametric geographically weighted regression Kriging (SGWRK), and semiparametric geographically and altitudinal weighted regression Kriging (SGAWRK). Coefficient of determination (), mean square error (MSE) and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) were used to evaluate the fitness of these models. Finally, the spatial distribution diagram of forest carbon storage was drawn with the fitting results of the optimal regression model, and the distribution pattern of forest carbon storage in the research area was analyzed. The stand factor and topographic factor had strong influence on carbon storage of natural secondary forests, among which the average diameter at breast height (DBH) of stands was the dominant variable. There was positive correlation between stand factor and topographic factor. SGWR and SGAWR model could reduce the spatial autocorrelation of the GWR model residual. The geographically regression expansion model could improve the fitting effect of GWR model. Among them, the SGWRK model had the highest and the lowest MSE and AIC. The method with altitude as the spatial weight did not effectively improve the fitting effect of the model. The total forest carbon storage of Langxi Forest Farm was 205×10 t, and the carbon density ranged from 8.56 to 145.74 t·hm, with a mean value of 57.98 t·hm. Overall, the distribution pattern of carbon storage was high in the northwest and low in the southeast, while high in the edge and low in the interior. By improving the parameter heterogeneity and residual spatial autocorrelation in the GWR model, we can accurately assess the spatial relationship between forest carbon storage and relevant variables in the study area, and improve the estimation accuracy of the forest carbon storage and its spatial distribution at the regional scale.