Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Ecol Lett. 2021 Jul;24(7):1328-1340. doi: 10.1111/ele.13745. Epub 2021 Apr 26.
The lifetime reproductive success (LRS) of individuals is affected by random events such as death, realized growth or realized reproduction, and the outcomes of these events can differ even when individuals have identical probabilities. Another source of randomness arises when these probabilities also change over time in variable environments. For structured populations in stochastic environments, we extend our recent method to determine how birth environment and birth stage determine the random distribution of the LRS. Our results provide a null model that quantifies effects on LRS of just the birth size or stage. Using Roe deer Capreolus capreolus as a case study, we show that the effect of an individual's birth environment on LRS varies with the frequency of environments and their temporal autocorrelation, and that lifetime performance is affected by changes in the pattern of environmental states expected as a result of climate change.
个体的终生繁殖成功率（LRS）受到随机事件的影响，如死亡、实现的生长或实现的繁殖，即使个体具有相同的概率，这些事件的结果也可能不同。当这些概率在随时间变化的可变环境中也发生变化时，就会出现另一个随机源。对于随机环境中的结构化种群，我们扩展了我们最近的方法，以确定出生环境和出生阶段如何决定 LRS 的随机分布。我们的结果提供了一个零模型，该模型量化了仅仅出生大小或阶段对 LRS 的影响。我们使用 Roe 鹿 Capreolus capreolus 作为案例研究，表明个体出生环境对 LRS 的影响随环境频率及其时间自相关而变化，并且终生表现受到气候变化导致的环境状态模式变化的影响。
