International Energy Security Research Center, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, 102488, China.
Shandong Lucion Financial Holdings Co., Ltd, Ji'nan, 250101, Shandong, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Sep;28(35):48481-48493. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-14041-y. Epub 2021 Apr 28.
From the perspective of supply chain, energy consumption is an aggregation of energy intensity, intermediate input ratio, and final demand. However, research on the role of intermediate input on energy consumption is rare. This paper disaggregates the complete demand model of China based on MRIO (multi-region input-output model) into final demands and intermediate demands, and applied a decomposition approach combining LMDI (logarithmic mean Divisia index) and SDA (structural decomposition analysis) to evaluate the contribution of intermediate intensity, integrating the respective advantages of SDA and LMDI. The results show that both domestic and international intermediated intensities promote China's energy consumption growth in most years. The reasons are as follows: (1) the intermediate efficiency enhanced; (2) the final consumption structure shifted toward the more complex pattern; (3) the market demanded more energy-intensive final goods. All effects are positive except the energy intensity effect. Based on the consistency in aggregation of LMDI, we found that the aggregation of international effects is bigger than the aggregation of domestic effects, illustrating that international factors are the main driving force of China's energy consumption. The research implies that the intermediate process deserves more attention for the mitigation of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Improvement of intermediate efficiency and structure will be effective.
从供应链的角度来看，能源消耗是能源强度、中间投入率和最终需求的总和。然而，关于中间投入对能源消耗的作用的研究却很少。本文基于多区域投入产出模型（MRIO）将中国完整的需求模型分解为最终需求和中间需求，并应用一种结合对数平均迪氏指数法（LMDI）和结构分解分析（SDA）的分解方法，评估中间强度的贡献，综合了 SDA 和 LMDI 的各自优势。结果表明，国内和国际中间投入强度在大多数年份都促进了中国的能源消耗增长。原因如下：（1）中间效率提高；（2）最终消费结构向更复杂的模式转变；（3）市场对能源密集型最终产品的需求增加。除能源强度效应外，所有效应均为正。基于 LMDI 的聚合一致性，我们发现国际效应的聚合大于国内效应的聚合，这表明国际因素是中国能源消耗的主要驱动力。研究表明，中间过程值得更多关注，以减轻能源消耗和温室气体排放。提高中间效率和结构将是有效的。
