AIM

To establish and validate a nomogram for predicting prognosis of breast cancer patients with pN0-1 who were treated with mastectomy and without adjuvant radiotherapy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The LASSO regression was performed to identify predictors of breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS), local regional recurrence (LRR) and distant metastasis (DM). Model performance was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot.

RESULTS

The 5-year BCSS, LRR and DM rates for the entire cohort were 98%, 2% and 4%, respectively. LASSO regression analysis found that pathological T stage, number of positive LN, grade and Ki-67 were significant predictors for both BCSS and DM-free survival, while number of resected LN and PR status were predictors for DM-free survival. In addition, number of positive LN was the only significant predictor for developing LRR. The C-indexes for the 5-year BCSS and DM nomograms were 0.81 and 0.78 in the training data set, 0.65 and 0.70 in the testing set and 0.72 and 0.69 in the external validation set, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our prognostic nomograms accurately predict 5-year BCSS and DM-free survival in post-mastectomy breast cancer without adjuvant radiotherapy, which provides a useful tool to identify high-risk patients who could benefit from additional adjuvant therapy.