Satyanti Annisa, Liantoro Toton, Thomas Morgan, Neeman Teresa, Nicotra Adrienne B, Guja Lydia K
Division Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Robertson Building, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia.
Centre for Plant Conservation-Botanic Gardens, Indonesian Institute of Sciences, Jalan Ir. Haji Juanda, Bogor 16003, Indonesia.
Conserv Physiol. 2021 Apr 28;9(1):coab023. doi: 10.1093/conphys/coab023. eCollection 2021.
Global warming is affecting plant phenology, growth and reproduction in complex ways and is particularly apparent in vulnerable alpine environments. Warming affects reproductive and vegetative traits, as well as phenology, but seldom do studies assess these traits in concert and across the whole of a plant's life cycle, particularly in wild species. Thus, it is difficult to extrapolate from such effects to predictions about the persistence of species or their conservation and management. We assessed trait variation in response to warming in , an Australian native montane herb, in which populations vary in germination strategy (degree of dormancy) and growth characteristics as a function of ecological factors. Warming accelerated growth in the early stages of development, particularly for populations with non-dormant seed. The differences in growth disappeared at the transition to reproduction, when an accelerating effect on phenology emerged, to varying degrees depending on germination strategy. Overall, warming reduced flower and seed production and increased mortality, indicating a reduction in reproductive opportunities, particularly for populations with dormant seed. Developmental condition affected germination strategy of the next generation seed, leading to increased degree of dormancy and slowed germination rate. But there were no whole-scale shifts in strategy or total germination percent. Following through the life cycle reveals that warming will have some potentially positive effects (early growth rates) and some negative effects (reduced reproductive output). Ultimately, warming impacts will depend on how those effects play out in the field: early establishment and an accelerated trajectory to seed maturity may offset the tradeoff with overall seed production. Small differences among germination strategies likewise may cascade to larger effects, with important implications for persistence of species in the alpine landscape. Thus, to understand and manage the response of wild species to warming takes a whole-of-life perspective and attention to ecologically significant patterns of within-species variation.
全球变暖正以复杂的方式影响着植物的物候、生长和繁殖，这在脆弱的高山环境中尤为明显。变暖会影响植物的生殖和营养性状以及物候，但很少有研究在植物的整个生命周期内同时评估这些性状，尤其是针对野生植物物种。因此，很难从这些影响推断出有关物种存续或其保护与管理的预测。我们评估了一种澳大利亚本土山地草本植物对变暖的性状变化，该植物的种群在萌发策略（休眠程度）和生长特征方面因生态因素而异。变暖加速了植物发育早期的生长，尤其是对于具有非休眠种子的种群。在向生殖阶段过渡时，生长差异消失，此时对物候出现加速效应，其程度因萌发策略而异。总体而言，变暖减少了花朵和种子的产量，并增加了死亡率，这表明生殖机会减少，尤其是对于具有休眠种子的种群。发育状况影响了下一代种子的萌发策略，导致休眠程度增加和萌发速率减慢。但在策略或总萌发率方面没有出现全面的转变。贯穿整个生命周期可以发现，变暖会产生一些潜在的积极影响（早期生长速率）和一些负面影响（生殖产出减少）。最终，变暖的影响将取决于这些效应在野外的表现方式：早期定植和加速的种子成熟轨迹可能会抵消与总体种子产量之间的权衡。萌发策略之间的微小差异同样可能级联产生更大的影响，这对高山景观中物种的存续具有重要意义。因此，要理解和管理野生物种对变暖的响应，需要从整个生命周期的角度出发，并关注物种内部具有生态意义的变异模式。
