Feronato Sofia G, Araujo Sabrina, Boeger Walter A
Biological Interactions, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, Brazil.
Dept de Física, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, Brazil.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2022 Jul;69(4):1727-1738. doi: 10.1111/tbed.14146. Epub 2021 May 22.
This study evaluates through modelling the possible individual and combined effect of three populational parameters of pathogens (reproduction rate; rate of novelty emergence; and propagule size) on the colonization of new host species-putatively the most fundamental process leading to the emergence of new infectious diseases. The results are analysed under the theoretical framework of the Stockholm Paradigm using IBM simulations to better understand the evolutionary dynamics of the pathogen population and the possible role of Ecological Fitting. The simulations suggest that all three parameters positively influence the success of colonization of new hosts by a novel parasite population, but contrary to the prevailing belief, the rate of novelty emergence (e.g. mutations) is the least important factor. Maximization of all parameters results in a synergetic facilitation of the colonization and emulates the expected scenario for pathogenic microorganisms. The simulations also provide theoretical support for the retention of the capacity of fast-evolving lineages to retro-colonize their previous host species/lineage by ecological fitting. Capacity is, thus, much larger than we can anticipate. Hence, the results support the empirical observations that opportunity of encounter (i.e. the breakdown in mechanisms for ecological isolation) is a fundamental determinant to the emergence of new associations-especially Emergent Infectious Diseases-and the dynamics of host exploration, as observed in SARS-CoV-2. Insights on the dynamics of Emergent Infectious Diseases derived from the simulations and from the Stockholm Paradigm are discussed.
本研究通过建模评估病原体的三个种群参数（繁殖率、新特性出现率和繁殖体大小）对新宿主物种定殖的可能的个体和综合影响，新宿主物种定殖被认为是导致新发传染病出现的最基本过程。在斯德哥尔摩范式的理论框架下，使用IBM模拟对结果进行分析，以更好地理解病原体种群的进化动态以及生态适应的可能作用。模拟结果表明，所有这三个参数都对新寄生虫种群定殖新宿主的成功产生积极影响，但与普遍看法相反，新特性出现率（例如突变）是最不重要的因素。所有参数的最大化会协同促进定殖，并模拟致病微生物的预期情况。模拟还为快速进化谱系通过生态适应重新定殖其先前宿主物种/谱系的能力提供了理论支持。因此，这种能力比我们预期的要大得多。因此，研究结果支持了以下实证观察结果：接触机会（即生态隔离机制的瓦解）是新关联（尤其是新发传染病）出现以及宿主探索动态的一个基本决定因素，如在严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）中所观察到的。本文讨论了从模拟和斯德哥尔摩范式中得出的关于新发传染病动态的见解。
