Biological Interactions, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, Brazil.
Eötvös Loránd Research Network, Centre for Ecological Research, Institute of Evolution, Budapest, Hungary.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2022 Sep;69(5):e1280-e1288. doi: 10.1111/tbed.14557. Epub 2022 May 13.
The unusual genetic diversity of the Omicron strain has led to speculation about its origin. The mathematical modelling platform developed for the Stockholm Paradigm (SP) indicates strongly that it has retro-colonized humans from an unidentified nonhuman mammal, likely originally infected by humans. The relationship between Omicron and all other SARS-CoV-2 variants indicates oscillations among hosts, a core part of the SP. Such oscillations result from the emergence of novel variants following colonization of new hosts, replenishing and expanding the risk space for disease emergence. The SP predicts that pathogens colonize new hosts using pre-existing capacities. Those events are thus predictable to a certain extent. Novel variants emerge after a colonization and are not predictable. This makes it imperative to take proactive measures for anticipating emerging infectious diseases (EID) and mitigating their impact. The SP suggests a policy protocol, DAMA, to accomplish this goal. DAMA comprises: DOCUMENT to detect pathogens before they emerge in new places or colonize new hosts; ASSESS to determine risk; MONITOR to detect changes in pathogen populations that increase the risk of outbreaks and ACT to prevent outbreaks when possible and minimize their impact when they occur.
奥密克戎毒株的非同寻常的遗传多样性引发了对其起源的猜测。为斯德哥尔摩模式（SP）开发的数学建模平台强烈表明，它已经从一种未被识别的非人类哺乳动物中重新感染了人类，这种哺乳动物可能最初是被人类感染的。奥密克戎与所有其他 SARS-CoV-2 变体之间的关系表明宿主之间存在波动，这是 SP 的核心部分。这种波动是由新宿主定植后新型变体的出现引起的，为疾病的出现补充和扩大了风险空间。SP 预测病原体利用现有能力定植新宿主。因此，这些事件在一定程度上是可以预测的。新型变体在定植后出现，无法预测。这使得采取积极主动的措施来预测新发传染病（EID）并减轻其影响变得至关重要。SP 提出了一项政策协议 DAMA 来实现这一目标。DAMA 包括：DOCUMENT 在病原体出现在新地方或定植新宿主之前进行检测；ASSESS 确定风险；MONITOR 检测病原体种群变化，增加暴发风险，并在可能时采取行动预防暴发并在暴发发生时将其影响降到最低。
