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基于共识的语言分布大规模群体决策:运用统计推断与遗憾理论

Consensus-Based Linguistic Distribution Large-Scale Group Decision Making Using Statistical Inference and Regret Theory.

作者信息

Jin Feifei, Liu Jinpei, Zhou Ligang, Martínez Luis

机构信息

School of Business, Anhui University, Hefei, 230601 Anhui China.

School of Mathematical Sciences, Anhui University, Hefei, 230601 Anhui China.

出版信息

Group Decis Negot. 2021;30(4):813-845. doi: 10.1007/s10726-021-09736-z. Epub 2021 May 5.

Abstract

Large-scale group decision-making (LSGDM) deals with complex decision- making problems which involve a large number of decision makers (DMs). Such a complex scenario leads to uncertain contexts in which DMs elicit their knowledge using linguistic information that can be modelled using different representations. However, current processes for solving LSGDM problems commonly neglect a key concept in many real-world decision-making problems, such as DMs' regret aversion psychological behavior. Therefore, this paper introduces a novel consensus based linguistic distribution LSGDM (CLDLSGDM) approach based on a statistical inference principle that considers DMs' regret aversion psychological characteristics using regret theory and which aims at obtaining agreed solutions. Specifically, the CLDLSGDM approach applies the statistical inference principle to the consensual information obtained in the consensus process, in order to derive the weights of DMs and attributes using the consensus matrix and adjusted decision-making matrices to solve the decision-making problem. Afterwards, by using regret theory, the comprehensive perceived utility values of alternatives are derived and their ranking determined. Finally, a performance evaluation of public hospitals in China is given as an example in order to illustrate the implementation of the designed method. The stability and advantages of the designed method are analyzed by a sensitivity and a comparative analysis.

摘要

大规模群体决策(LSGDM)处理涉及大量决策者(DM)的复杂决策问题。这种复杂的情况导致了不确定的情境,在这些情境中,决策者使用可以用不同表示形式建模的语言信息来表达他们的知识。然而,当前解决LSGDM问题的过程通常忽略了许多现实世界决策问题中的一个关键概念,例如决策者的后悔厌恶心理行为。因此,本文基于统计推断原理引入了一种新颖的基于共识的语言分布LSGDM(CLDLSGDM)方法,该方法使用后悔理论考虑决策者的后悔厌恶心理特征,旨在获得一致的解决方案。具体而言,CLDLSGDM方法将统计推断原理应用于在共识过程中获得的共识信息,以便使用共识矩阵和调整后的决策矩阵来推导决策者和属性的权重,从而解决决策问题。之后,利用后悔理论,得出备选方案的综合感知效用值并确定其排名。最后,以中国公立医院的绩效评估为例,来说明所设计方法的实施过程。通过敏感性分析和比较分析,分析了所设计方法的稳定性和优势。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/291e/8097260/1c0fd5003f70/10726_2021_9736_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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