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描述肝内胆管癌老年患者的治疗模式并通过验证模型预测预后:一项基于人群的研究

Describing Treatment Patterns for Elderly Patients with Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma and Predicting Prognosis by a Validated Model: A Population-Based Study.

作者信息

Zhu Hanlong, Ji Kun, Wu Wei, Zhao Si, Zhou Jian, Zhang Chunmei, Tang Ruiyi, Miao Lin

机构信息

Medical Centre for Digestive Diseases, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210011, Jiangsu Province, China.

Department of Interventional Radiology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450052, Henan Province, China.

出版信息

J Cancer. 2021 Mar 30;12(11):3114-3125. doi: 10.7150/jca.53978. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Elderly patients with Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) are frequently under-represented in clinical trials, which leads to the unclear management of ICC in elderly patients. This study aimed to describe treatment patterns and establish a reliable nomogram in elderly ICC patients. Based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, we conducted a retrospective analysis of 1651 elderly patients (≥65 years) diagnosed with ICC between 2004 and 2016. For the whole study population, 29.3% received only chemotherapy, 26.7% no tumor-directed therapy, 19.1% surgery alone, 17.5% radiotherapy, and 7.4% surgery plus chemotherapy. Compared with the age group of 65-74 years, patients aged ≥75 years were less likely to accept treatment. Among patients 66-74 years of age, surgery alone resulted in a median overall survival (OS) of 30 months, surgery combined with chemotherapy 26 months, radiotherapy 17 months, chemotherapy alone 10 months and no therapy 3 months; while among patients ≥75 years of age, the median OS was 21, 25, 14, 9 and 4, respectively. Moreover, independent prognostic indicators including age, gender, grade, tumor size, T stage, N stage, M stage, and treatment were incorporated to construct a nomogram. The C-indexes of the OS nomogram were 0.725 and 0.724 for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Importantly, the predictive model harbored a better discriminative power than the American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM staging system. Active treatment should not be abandoned among all the elderly patients with ICC. The validated nomogram provided an effective and practical tool to accurately evaluate prognosis and to guide personalized treatment for elderly ICC patients.

摘要

肝内胆管癌(ICC)老年患者在临床试验中的代表性常常不足,这导致老年ICC患者的治疗管理尚不清楚。本研究旨在描述老年ICC患者的治疗模式并建立一个可靠的列线图。基于监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库,我们对2004年至2016年间诊断为ICC的1651例老年患者(≥65岁)进行了回顾性分析。在整个研究人群中,29.3%仅接受化疗,26.7%未接受肿瘤导向治疗,19.1%仅接受手术,17.5%接受放疗,7.4%接受手术加化疗。与65 - 74岁年龄组相比,≥75岁的患者接受治疗的可能性较小。在66 - 74岁的患者中,仅手术治疗的中位总生存期(OS)为30个月,手术联合化疗为26个月,放疗为17个月,单纯化疗为10个月,未治疗为3个月;而在≥75岁的患者中,中位OS分别为21、25、14、9和4个月。此外,纳入年龄、性别、分级、肿瘤大小、T分期、N分期、M分期和治疗等独立预后指标来构建列线图。训练队列和验证队列的OS列线图的C指数分别为0.725和0.724。重要的是,该预测模型比美国癌症联合委员会TNM分期系统具有更好的鉴别能力。对于所有老年ICC患者,不应放弃积极治疗。经验证的列线图为准确评估老年ICC患者的预后和指导个体化治疗提供了一种有效且实用的工具。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8241/8100797/50d243b3802c/jcav12p3114g001.jpg

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