Evaluating effects of different control strategies for Infectious Salmon Anaemia (ISA) in marine salmonid farming by scenario simulation using a disease transmission model.

Infectious salmon anaemia (ISA) is an important viral disease causing economic losses and reduced welfare in farmed Atlantic salmon. Here, we present a spatio-temporal stochastic model for the spread of ISA between and within marine aquaculture farms. The model is estimated on historical production data for all marine salmonid farms in Norway from 2004 to February 2019. In this time 142 outbreaks of ISA occurred. We find that transmission from infected neighbouring farms accounts for around 50% of the infections, whereas transmission from "non-specified sources" accounts for around 40%. We hypothesise that the most important of the latter are viruses mutating from the non-virulent ISAV HPR0 to the virulent ISAV HPRdel. The model is used for scenario simulation, or what-if analysis, to investigate the effects of potential strategies to combat ISA, including screening, vaccination and culling. Changing from the current strategy of culling farms with detected ISA-outbreaks to mandatory screening and culling when virus is detected will reduce the fraction of cohorts with a clinical ISA outbreak from 3.8 to 0.36%. Introducing mandatory vaccination would have approximately the same effect as the current stamping-out strategy. The scenario simulation is a useful tool for deciding on appropriate mitigation measures.