Grimm J, Hempel W E, Gerst H, Richter K, Hempel B
Institut für Medizinische Statistik und Datenverarbeitung, DDR Berlin-Buch.
Z Gesamte Inn Med. 1988 Apr 15;43(8):205-9.
On the basis of 5-years intervention results concerning chronic heart and vessel diseases of a check, which is representative for approx. 280.000 inhabitants of defined territories (EBMO-Cor Berlin), the prognose for the time of 5 and 10 years were estimated. It refers to ambulantories with the diagnosis hypertension and coronary heart disease, who were treated in a different way. The fundamental idea was to extract a prognostic index to make possible a choice of the treatment, adequate to the specific disease and its severe degrees, free of chance. The basic requirement of the application of the "Markoff-model" was the evidence of homogeneity concerning transition of severe degrees, used as reference, which was proved by means of the 2-k-chi 2-Felder-test. By using a starting vector of 1000 patients in each case inquiries about the distribution to the severe degrees had been made. The so achieved results illustrate a therapy-dependent susceptibility of these (morphologically defined) population suffering from a heart disease and allow a forecast, estimated also for a longer period, about the extent of the transition of a respecting and with the possibilities of the outpatient practice defined severe degrees of a heart and circulation disease and with that about chance and risk of a patient. By means of the epidemiological reference of the study the result gains special importance for outpatient practice.
基于一项针对约28万特定地区居民（柏林EBMO - Cor）慢性心血管疾病的5年干预检查结果，估算了5年和10年的预后情况。研究对象为诊断为高血压和冠心病且接受不同治疗方式的门诊患者。其基本思路是提取一个预后指标，以便能够根据特定疾病及其严重程度，无偏差地选择合适的治疗方法。应用“马尔可夫模型”的基本要求是作为参考的严重程度转变具有同质性证据，这通过2 - k - chi² -费尔德检验得到了证实。在每种情况下，以1000名患者作为起始向量，对严重程度的分布进行了询问。所取得的结果表明了这些（形态学定义的）心脏病患者对治疗的易感性，并能够对心脏病和循环系统疾病在门诊实践中所定义的严重程度转变范围进行较长时期的预测，进而对患者的机遇和风险进行预测。通过该研究的流行病学参考，这一结果对门诊实践具有特殊重要性。
