Gracie Renata, Xavier Diego Ricardo, Medronho Roberto
Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica em Saúde, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.
Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.
Cad Saude Publica. 2021 May 14;37(5):e00100119. doi: 10.1590/0102-311X00100119. eCollection 2021.
Leptospirosis is related to problems with environmental sanitation, and the incidence tends to increase during flood periods. Considering issues related to climate change, floods can be expected to increase. Floods do not affect populations homogeneously, and communities with worse socioeconomic conditions tend to be impacted more heavily. In order to determine whether the number of floods increases the incidence of leptospirosis and its relationship to contextual variables, the study used socioeconomic, environmental, and disease occurrence data at the municipal (county) level. Municipalities suffering problems with sewage disposal showed a higher risk of leptospirosis incidence. Total flooding since the municipality's declaration of flood emergency was an important risk marker for leptospirosis incidence. Regression tree modeling proved useful for estimating leptospirosis incidence in Brazil.
钩端螺旋体病与环境卫生问题相关，在洪水期间发病率往往会上升。考虑到与气候变化相关的问题，预计洪水将会增加。洪水对人群的影响并非均匀一致，社会经济条件较差的社区往往受到的影响更为严重。为了确定洪水次数是否会增加钩端螺旋体病的发病率及其与背景变量的关系，该研究使用了市级（县）层面的社会经济、环境和疾病发生数据。存在污水处理问题的市钩端螺旋体病发病风险更高。自该市宣布洪水紧急情况以来的总洪水量是钩端螺旋体病发病率的一个重要风险指标。回归树模型被证明有助于估算巴西钩端螺旋体病的发病率。
