Are extreme high temperatures at low or high latitudes more likely to inhibit the population growth of a globally distributed aphid?

Although climate warming can increase both mean temperature and its variability, it is often the effects of climate warming on short periods of extreme temperatures that are expected to have particularly large physiological and ecological consequences. Understanding the vulnerability of organisms at various latitudes to climate extremes is thus critical for understanding warming effects on regional biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management. While previous studies have shown that thermal responses depend on temperature regimes that organisms have previously experienced, this issue has not been considered much when comparing the effects of temperature extremes at different latitudes. To fill this gap, here we manipulated different combinations of amplitude and duration of daily high temperature extremes to simulate conditions at different latitudes. We tested the effects of those regimes on life-history traits and fitness of a globally-distributed aphid species, Rhopalosiphum padi. We compared our results with previous studies to better understand the extent to which these regimes affect conclusions based on comparisons under different mean temperatures. As a consequence of asymmetrical thermal performance curves, we hypothesized that the temperature regimes with higher daily maximum temperatures at higher latitudes would cause strong negative effects. Our results showed that these regimes with thermal extremes caused substantial decreases in life-history traits and fitness relative to the predictions from different mean temperatures. Specifically, the regime with higher daily maximum temperature reflecting a higher mid-latitude location had larger impacts on development, reproduction and population fitness than the regime representing a lower mid-latitude location. These findings have implications for understanding the vulnerability of organisms across latitudes to increasingly frequent extreme heat events under ongoing climate warming.