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由一个基于证据的德尔菲小组和定制的SEIR模型评估公共卫生干预措施对遏制SARS-CoV-2传播的影响。

Impact of public health interventions to curb SARS-CoV-2 spread assessed by an evidence-educated Delphi panel and tailored SEIR model.

作者信息

Brüggenjürgen Bernd, Stricker Hans-Peter, Krist Lilian, Ortiz Miriam, Reinhold Thomas, Roll Stephanie, Rotter Gabriele, Weikert Beate, Wiese-Posselt Miriam, Willich Stefan N

机构信息

Institute for Health Services Research and Technical Orthopaedics, Orthopaedic Department of Medical School Hannover (MHH) at DIAKOVERE Annastift, Anna-von-Borries-Str. 1-7, 30625 Hannover, Germany.

Syspedics UG, Berlin, Germany.

出版信息

Z Gesundh Wiss. 2023;31(4):539-552. doi: 10.1007/s10389-021-01566-2. Epub 2021 May 17.

DOI:10.1007/s10389-021-01566-2
PMID:34026423
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8127459/
Abstract

AIM

To use a Delphi-panel-based assessment of the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) in order to retrospectively approximate and to prospectively predict the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progression via a SEIR model (susceptible, exposed, infectious, removed).

METHODS

We applied an evidence-educated Delphi-panel approach to elicit the impact of NPIs on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate R in Germany. Effectiveness was defined as the product of efficacy and compliance. A discrete, deterministic SEIR model with time step of 1 day, a latency period of 1.8 days, duration of infectiousness of 5 days, and a share of the total population of 15% assumed to be protected by immunity was developed in order to estimate the impact of selected NPI measures on the course of the pandemic. The model was populated with the Delphi-panel results and varied in sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Efficacy and compliance estimates for the three most effective NPIs were as follows: test and isolate 49% (efficacy)/78% (compliance), keeping distance 42%/74%, personal protection masks (cloth masks or other face masks) 33%/79%. Applying all NPI effectiveness estimates to the SEIR model resulted in a valid replication of reported occurrence of the German SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. A combination of four NPIs at consented compliance rates might curb the CoViD-19 pandemic.

CONCLUSION

Employing an evidence-educated Delphi-panel approach can support SARS-CoV-2 modelling. Future curbing scenarios require a combination of NPIs. A Delphi-panel-based NPI assessment and modelling might support public health policy decision making by informing sequence and number of needed public health measures.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-021-01566-2.

摘要

目的

采用基于德尔菲小组的方法评估不同非药物干预措施（NPI）的有效性，以便通过SEIR模型（易感、暴露、感染、康复）对严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）大流行的进展进行回顾性近似和前瞻性预测。

方法

我们采用基于循证的德尔菲小组方法，以得出NPI对德国SARS-CoV-2传播率R的影响。有效性定义为效力与依从性的乘积。开发了一个离散的确定性SEIR模型，时间步长为1天，潜伏期为1.8天，传染期为5天，假设15%的总人口具有免疫保护，以估计选定的NPI措施对大流行进程的影响。该模型纳入了德尔菲小组的结果，并在敏感性分析中有所变化。

结果

三种最有效的NPI的效力和依从性估计如下：检测并隔离49%（效力）/78%（依从性），保持社交距离42%/74%，佩戴个人防护口罩（布口罩或其他口罩）33%/79%。将所有NPI有效性估计应用于SEIR模型，有效复制了德国SARS-CoV-2大流行的报告发病情况。四种NPI以商定的依从率组合可能会遏制冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行。

结论

采用基于循证的德尔菲小组方法可为SARS-CoV-2建模提供支持。未来的遏制方案需要多种NPI的组合。基于德尔菲小组的NPI评估和建模可能通过告知所需公共卫生措施的顺序和数量，为公共卫生政策决策提供支持。

补充信息

在线版本包含可在10.1007/s10389-021-01566-2获取的补充材料。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a518/8127459/fa981bdace3e/10389_2021_1566_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a518/8127459/1c5e214f5bb5/10389_2021_1566_Fig1_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a518/8127459/398fe6ac7cc5/10389_2021_1566_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a518/8127459/3f2c06a411b0/10389_2021_1566_Fig5a_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a518/8127459/bd4c0b546af9/10389_2021_1566_Fig6a_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a518/8127459/a45756b20157/10389_2021_1566_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a518/8127459/fa981bdace3e/10389_2021_1566_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a518/8127459/1c5e214f5bb5/10389_2021_1566_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a518/8127459/3fc4ac4c9d2a/10389_2021_1566_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a518/8127459/6834c48a7055/10389_2021_1566_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a518/8127459/398fe6ac7cc5/10389_2021_1566_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a518/8127459/3f2c06a411b0/10389_2021_1566_Fig5a_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a518/8127459/bd4c0b546af9/10389_2021_1566_Fig6a_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a518/8127459/a45756b20157/10389_2021_1566_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a518/8127459/fa981bdace3e/10389_2021_1566_Fig8_HTML.jpg

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