Spatio-temporal changes in water quality in the Guarapiranga reservoir (São Paulo, Brazil): insights from a long-term monitoring data series.

The provision of drinking water in metropolises is a challenge that requires programs for continuous monitoring of water quality and processes that impact the land cover of the watershed. In this work, we investigated through multivariate statistical analysis the temporal and spatial trends of several variables, not yet explored in a data series that includes 42 years (1978-2020) of monitoring in the hydrographic basin of the Guarapiranga reservoir, in the São Paulo Metropolitan Region-SPMR (Brazil). This reservoir is the source of drinking water for 3.8 million people and plays a strategic role in the social, environmental, and economic structure at SPMR. Our results point to the continuous degradation of water quality in the reservoir, although with different causes and spatio-temporal aspects. Between the 1970s and 1980s, variables associated with erosion/silting played a more critical role. From the 1990s, the introduction of N and P intensified, and the concentration of thermotolerant coliforms increased. The loss of quality is mainly associated with the progressive advance of urban settlements without planning combined with the inefficient initiatives to control domestic sewage pollution. If there is no rapid and comprehensive intervention, there is a risk that the Guarapiranga reservoir may become unsuitable for drinking water supply and other types of use in the future. This scenario will represent a critical obstacle to regional development and the quality of life of the population.