2018 ACC/AHA 多学会胆固醇治疗指南推荐的风险增强因子和冠状动脉钙评分对汇总队列方程的预后价值:来自 3 个大型前瞻性队列的见解。

Prognostic Utility of Risk Enhancers and Coronary Artery Calcium Score Recommended in the 2018 ACC/AHA Multisociety Cholesterol Treatment Guidelines Over the Pooled Cohort Equation: Insights From 3 Large Prospective Cohorts.

机构信息

Division of Cardiology University of Iowa Hospital and Clinics Iowa City IA.

Division of Cardiology Wayne State University College of Medicine Detroit MI.

出版信息

J Am Heart Assoc. 2021 Jun 15;10(12):e019589. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.120.019589. Epub 2021 Jun 7.

Abstract

Background Limited data exist on the incremental value of the risk enhancers recommended in the 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology (ACC/AHA) cholesterol treatment guidelines in addition to the pooled cohort equation. Methods and Results Using pooled individual-level data from 3 epidemiological cohorts involving 22 942 participants (56% women, mean age 59 years), we evaluated the predictive ability of the risk enhancers and coronary artery calcium (CAC) score for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and determined their incremental utility using the C statistic, net reclassification index, and integrated discrimination index. A total of 1960 (8.5%) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events were accrued over 10 years. Of the 10 risk enhancers evaluated, only 6 predicted atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease independent of the pooled cohort equation. However, the individual enhancers demonstrated little or no incremental benefit. There was more incremental value from combining the 6 enhancers into an aggregate score (hazard ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.08-1.37 for each additional enhancer), and having ≥3 enhancers represents an optimum threshold for incremental prediction (C statistic, 0.766; net reclassification index, 0.041; integrated discrimination index, 0.010; ≤0.007). On the other hand, CAC was superior to individual enhancers (C statistic, 0.774; net reclassification index, 0.073; integrated discrimination index, 0.010; <0.001), reliably reclassifies intermediate-risk participants with <3 risk enhancers (event rate, 3.5% if no CAC and 9.8% if positive CAC), but offered no reclassification among participants with ≥3 enhancers. Conclusions The individual risk enhancers evaluated in this study provided no or only marginal incremental information added to the pooled cohort equation. However, the presence of ≥3 risk enhancers reliably identified intermediate-risk patients that will benefit from statin therapy, and further CAC testing may be considered among those with <3 risk enhancers.

摘要

背景

除了汇总队列方程外,2018 年美国心脏协会/美国心脏病学会(AHA/ACC)胆固醇治疗指南中推荐的风险增强剂在增量价值方面的数据有限。

方法和结果

利用来自三个涉及 22942 名参与者(56%为女性,平均年龄 59 岁)的流行病学队列的个体水平汇总数据,我们评估了风险增强剂和冠状动脉钙(CAC)评分对动脉粥样硬化性心血管疾病的预测能力,并使用 C 统计量、净重新分类指数和综合鉴别指数来确定其增量效用。在 10 年内共发生了 1960 例(8.5%)动脉粥样硬化性心血管疾病事件。在评估的 10 个风险增强剂中,只有 6 个独立于汇总队列方程预测动脉粥样硬化性心血管疾病。然而,各个增强剂的获益甚微或没有。将这 6 个增强剂组合成一个综合评分(每增加一个增强剂的风险比[HR]为 1.21;95%置信区间为 1.08-1.37)会带来更多的增量价值,并且存在≥3 个增强剂表示具有增量预测的最佳阈值(C 统计量为 0.766;净重新分类指数为 0.041;综合鉴别指数为 0.010;<0.007)。另一方面,CAC 优于个体增强剂(C 统计量为 0.774;净重新分类指数为 0.073;综合鉴别指数为 0.010;<0.001),可以可靠地重新分类风险增强剂<3 个的中等风险参与者(无 CAC 的事件发生率为 3.5%,有 CAC 的事件发生率为 9.8%),但对风险增强剂≥3 个的参与者没有重新分类。

结论

在这项研究中评估的个体风险增强剂没有提供或仅提供了对汇总队列方程的增量信息。然而,存在≥3 个风险增强剂可以可靠地识别将从他汀类药物治疗中获益的中等风险患者,并且对于风险增强剂<3 个的患者,可以考虑进一步进行 CAC 检测。

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