Wood Richard M
Modelling and Analytics, United Kingdom National Health Service (BNSSG CCG), Bristol, UK.
School of Management, University of Bath, Bath, UK.
Health Syst (Basingstoke). 2019 Dec 11;10(2):131-137. doi: 10.1080/20476965.2019.1700764.
Despite being the principal measure of elective performance in Great Britain's National Health Service, there is little on-the-ground awareness of the dynamics at play behind the referral-to-treatment (RTT) standard. Through a simple worked analogy, it is shown how this performance measure - calculated as the proportion of unresolved RTT pathways within 18 weeks from referral - is dependent on the interplay between elective demand and capacity. Bringing in activity (cost) and waiting list size, the presented theory unifies the five key components of the pathway dynamics for the first time within the published literature. A computer simulation model based on these principles is thereafter constructed as part of a more quantitative analysis using publicly available national data for 2017-2018. In this, referral rates and capacity are varied in line with a range of "what if" scenarios known to be of interest to service planners, with the effect on performance and cost objectively assessed.
尽管在英国国家医疗服务体系中,转诊到治疗(RTT)标准是衡量择期手术表现的主要指标,但对于该标准背后所涉及的动态情况,实际了解却很少。通过一个简单的类比示例,展示了这个表现指标(计算为从转诊起18周内未解决的RTT路径比例)是如何依赖于择期需求和医疗能力之间的相互作用的。引入活动(成本)和等候名单规模后,所提出的理论首次在已发表的文献中将路径动态的五个关键组成部分统一起来。此后,基于这些原则构建了一个计算机模拟模型,作为使用2017 - 2018年公开可用的国家数据进行更定量分析的一部分。在此模型中,转诊率和医疗能力会根据一系列服务规划者感兴趣的“如果……会怎样”的情景进行变化,并对其对表现和成本的影响进行客观评估。