Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, Jiangsu, China.
Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, Jiangsu, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Oct;28(39):55700-55715. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-14547-5. Epub 2021 Jun 17.
To reduce losses from the various disasters, regional water security evaluation and risk control model is studied. The model is built upon different kinds of indices in water security system, proceeding from the whole structure and its parts of evaluation, forewarning and decision making analysis. Based on China's national conditions, this study firstly advances an evaluation index system of regional water security, which includes three subsystems of water resource security, water environment security, and water disaster control security. Secondly, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process based on accelerating genetic algorithm (AGA-FAHP) combines with entropy weight method (EW) to determine the objective weights of evaluation indexes. The subjective and objective weights can be integrated by the principle of minimum relative information entropy. The subsystem weights are obtained by using AGA-FAHP. Then regional water security evaluation model is established. Thirdly, the comparison judging method is adopted to divide warning degree of water security with the comprehensive evaluation index and forewarning standards, and then the local conditions for proposing planning schemes. Finally, decision making analysis is employed to find the effective indices based on projection pursuit technique with the ideal point method in multi-index decision. This study takes Jiangsu province, China as an example. The evaluation results from 2000 to 2015 show that the development trend of water security is increasing on the whole except in several individual years. Risk forewarning doesn't take place in recent years. But risk is always there. So, project and non-project measures are proposed for the corresponding forewarning levels. From light warnings for three times and moderate warning for once in 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2004, index 1, 3, 4, 11, 13, 17, and 18 are selected as the effective indices to decision making analysis in common. Then, the solution schemes are given as the processing method accordingly. This conclusion is reasonable and its method is practical that match the reality. It suggests that the presented model is feasible with theory and application, which can offer advice in regional water security management to some extent.
为了减少各种灾害造成的损失，研究了区域水安全评价与风险控制模型。该模型基于水安全系统中的各种指标，从评价、预警和决策分析的整体结构及其部分出发进行构建。基于中国国情，本研究首先提出了一个区域水安全评价指标体系，该体系包括水资源安全、水环境安全和水灾害控制安全三个子系统。其次，基于加速遗传算法（AGA）的模糊层次分析法（FAHP）与熵权法（EW）相结合，确定评价指标的客观权重。采用最小相对信息熵原理对主、客观权重进行综合。利用 AGA-FAHP 得到子系统权重。然后建立区域水安全评价模型。再次，采用对比判断法，以综合评价指标和预警标准对水安全预警程度进行划分，并根据当地情况提出规划方案。最后，采用投影寻踪技术与理想点法的多指标决策进行决策分析，寻找有效指标。本研究以中国江苏省为例，对 2000 年至 2015 年的评价结果表明，除个别年份外，水安全的发展趋势总体上呈上升趋势。近年来没有发生风险预警，但风险始终存在。因此，针对相应的预警级别提出了项目和非项目措施。从 2000 年、2001 年、2002 年和 2004 年的三次轻度预警和一次中度预警中，选择指标 1、3、4、11、13、17 和 18 作为共同的决策分析有效指标。然后，根据相应的处理方法给出解决方案。该结论合理，方法实用，符合实际情况。这表明所提出的模型具有理论和应用可行性，可以在一定程度上为区域水安全管理提供建议。
