Institute for Fiscal Studies, 7 Ridgmount Street, London WC1E 7AE, UK.
J Health Econ. 2021 Jul;78:102477. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102477. Epub 2021 Jun 4.
This paper examines the impact of changes in public long-term care spending on the use of public hospitals among the older population in England. Mean per-person long-term care spending fell by 31% between 2009/10 and 2017/18, but cuts varied considerably geographically. We instrument public long-term care spending with predicted spending based on historical national funding shares and national spending trends. We find that reductions in public long-term care spending led to substantial increases in the number of emergency department (ED) visits made by patients aged 65 and above, explaining between a quarter and a half of the growth in ED use among this population over this period, and to an increase in the share of patients revisiting the ED within seven days. However, there was no impact on wider use of inpatient or outpatient services (which are more expensive to provide), and consequently little impact on overall hospital costs.
本文考察了英国公共长期护理支出变化对老年人口使用公立医院的影响。2009/10 年至 2017/18 年期间,人均长期护理支出下降了 31%,但支出削减在地域上存在较大差异。我们利用基于历史国家资金份额和国家支出趋势的预测支出对公共长期护理支出进行了工具变量处理。我们发现,公共长期护理支出的减少导致 65 岁及以上患者急诊就诊人数大幅增加,这解释了这一人群在此期间急诊就诊人数增长的四分之一到一半,并且在 7 天内再次就诊的患者比例也有所增加。然而,这对更广泛的住院或门诊服务(提供这些服务的成本更高)的使用没有影响,因此对整体医院成本的影响很小。