Taye Mintesinot Azene
Bahir Dar University, P. O. Box: 5501, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.
Heliyon. 2021 Jul 2;7(7):e07454. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e07454. eCollection 2021 Jul.
The study analyzed the level of agro-ecosystem sensitivity to climate change among the agro-climatic zones (ACZs) that are situated in the highlands of Lake Tana sub-basin. The analyses considered the actual land capability class (LCC in % considering soil texture, slope and elevation zone), crop diversity (count), length of growing period (LGP, month), and inter-annual variability of climate (mean annual rainfall-MARF in mm, mean monthly minimum temperature-MMMinT in ºC, and mean monthly maximum temperature-MMMaxT in ºC). For comparison purpose, it was essential to index/standardize the values of specified indicators. The proportion of arable land varied from 13.30% (in the Sub-Alpine) to 93.00% (in the Moist-Cold). The value of coefficient of variation showed the presence of variations of 7.85-11.21 (%), 7.21-10.34 (%), 16.37-39.61 (%) for MARF (mm), MMMaxT (ºC), and MMMinT (ºC), respectively across the ACZs. The inter-annual variability of both onset and offset time of rainy season was found to be in the range of 0.3-1.25 months. The LGP (month) was in the range of 3.25-6.25 across the ACZs; whereas crop diversity (count) ranged from 2-7. The production of red onion (allium cepa), oat (), local wheat (), and pea () was abandoned in the Sub-Alpine; whereas the production of linseed (), barley (), and niger in the Moist-Cool. Yet, crops like maize and tef became the common crops in the Cold, possibly because of global warming. The indexed value of agro-ecosystem sensitivity to climate change ranged from 0.14-0.71. The level of agro-ecosystem sensitivity was higher towards the Sub-Alpine. The local development interventions to be made in the various ACZs need to be determined/prioritized considering the level of agro-ecosystem sensitivity.
该研究分析了塔纳湖次流域高地农业气候区（ACZs）内农业生态系统对气候变化的敏感程度。分析考虑了实际土地能力等级（LCC，以土壤质地、坡度和海拔区域的百分比计）、作物多样性（数量）、生长周期长度（LGP，月）以及气候的年际变异性（年平均降雨量 - MARF，单位为毫米；月平均最低温度 - MMMinT，单位为摄氏度；月平均最高温度 - MMMaxT，单位为摄氏度）。为了便于比较，对特定指标的值进行索引/标准化至关重要。可耕地比例从亚高山地区的13.30%到湿冷地区的93.00%不等。变异系数值显示，各农业气候区的年平均降雨量（MARF，单位为毫米）、月平均最高温度（MMMaxT，单位为摄氏度）和月平均最低温度（MMMinT，单位为摄氏度）的变异范围分别为7.85 - 11.21（%）、7.21 - 10.34（%）和16.37 - 39.61（%）。雨季开始和结束时间的年际变异性在0.3 - 1.25个月范围内。各农业气候区的生长周期长度（LGP，月）在3.25 - 6.25范围内；而作物多样性（数量）在2 - 7之间。亚高山地区放弃了红洋葱（葱属）、燕麦、当地小麦和豌豆的种植；而湿冷地区放弃了亚麻籽、大麦和黑种草的种植。然而，玉米和画眉草等作物在寒冷地区成为常见作物，这可能是由于全球变暖。农业生态系统对气候变化的索引值在0.14 - 0.71之间。农业生态系统对亚高山地区的敏感程度更高。需要根据农业生态系统的敏感程度来确定/优先安排在各个农业气候区进行的地方发展干预措施。
