State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China.
State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Nov 20;796:148918. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148918. Epub 2021 Jul 15.
The spatial distribution of potential vegetation types in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau presents a significant vertical zonation. Explicating the vertical differences of potential vegetation distribution under future climate change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is an important issue for understanding the response of terrestrial ecosystem to climate change. Based on the observed climate data in 1981-2010 (T0), the scenario data of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 released by CMIP5 in 2011-2040 (T1), 2041-2070 (T2) and 2071-2100 (T3), and the digital elevation model (DEM) data, the Holdridge life zone (HLZ) model has been improved to simulate the scenarios of potential vegetation distribution in the different gradient zones of Qinghai-Tibet plateau. The shift model of mean center has been improved to calculate the shift direction and distance of mean center in the potential vegetation types. The ecological diversity index was introduced to compute the ecological diversity change of potential vegetation. The simulated results show that there are 17 potential vegetation types in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Wet tundra, high-cold moist forest and nival are the major potential vegetation types and cover 56.26% of the total area of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Under the three scenarios, the nival would have the largest decreased area that would be decreased by 3.340 × 10 km per decade, and the high-cold wet forest would have the greatest increased area that would be increased by 3.340 × 10 km on average per decade from T0 to T3. The potential vegetation types distributed in the alpine zone would show the fastest change ratio (11.32% per decade) and that in low mountain and other zone would show the slowest change ratio (7.54% per decade) on average. The ecological diversity and patch connectivity of potential vegetation would be decreased by 0.108% and 0.290% per decade on average from T0 to T3. In general, the potential vegetation types distributed in the high elevation area generally have a higher sensitivity to climate change in Qinghai-Tibet plateau in the future.
青藏高原潜在植被类型的空间分布呈现出显著的垂直分带。阐明青藏高原未来气候变化下潜在植被分布的垂直差异，对于理解陆地生态系统对气候变化的响应具有重要意义。本研究基于 1981-2010 年观测气候数据（T0）、CMIP5 于 2011-2040 年（T1）、2041-2070 年（T2）和 2071-2100 年（T3）发布的 RCP2.6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景数据，以及数字高程模型（DEM）数据，对 Holdridge 生命地带（HLZ）模型进行了改进，以模拟青藏高原不同梯度带潜在植被分布的情景。引入均值中心移动模型，以计算潜在植被类型均值中心的移动方向和距离。引入生态多样性指数，计算潜在植被的生态多样性变化。模拟结果表明，青藏高原共有 17 种潜在植被类型。湿寒带冻原、高寒湿润森林和冰雪是主要的潜在植被类型，占青藏高原总面积的 56.26%。在三种情景下，冰雪带的面积将减少最大，每十年减少 3.340×10km，高寒湿润森林的面积将增加最大，平均每十年增加 3.340×10km。高海拔地区的潜在植被类型将显示最快的变化率（每十年 11.32%），而低山和其他地区的变化率最慢（每十年 7.54%）。潜在植被的生态多样性和斑块连通性将从 T0 到 T3 平均每十年减少 0.108%和 0.290%。总体而言，未来青藏高原高海拔地区的潜在植被类型对气候变化的敏感性普遍较高。
