Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;
Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Jul 27;118(30). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2102007118.
Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated tree-ring stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between ∼2000 and ∼1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from ∼1675 to ∼1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 ± 4% and 5 ± 2% lower than during the mid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium-BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation.
由于缺乏高分辨率的气候代用资料，亚洲夏季风（ASM）的变化及其对生态和社会的长期影响，可追溯到新石器时代，这些都还不甚清楚。在这里，我们提供了一份来自青藏高原的精确测年和良好校准的树木年轮稳定同位素年表，分辨率为 1 到 5 年，反映了从公元前 4680 年到公元 2011 年的高频到低频 ASM 变化。从中全新世中期开始，一直持续的干燥趋势之上，约公元前 2000 年至公元前 1500 年，湿度可用性的迅速下降导致了从公元前 1675 年到公元前 1185 年的干旱水文气候期，与中全新世和仪器记录时期相比，平均降水量分别估计低 42±4%和 5±2%。这一公元前 2000 年的大干旱标志着从中全新世到全新世的过渡期，在此期间，区域森林减少，增强的风力活动影响了中国北方的生态系统。我们认为，大约从公元前 2000 年开始的这种突然干旱化导致了中国北方新石器时代文化的转变，可能引发了人类的迁移和社会变革。
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