School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, Hubei Province, P.R.China.
PLoS One. 2021 Jul 26;16(7):e0253978. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253978. eCollection 2021.
Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) has brought great disasters to humanity, and its influence continues to intensify. In response to the public health emergencies, prompt relief supplies are key to reduce the damage. This paper presents a method of emergency medical logistics to quick response to emergency epidemics. The methodology includes two recursive mechanisms: (1) the time-varying forecasting of medical relief demand according to a modified susceptible-exposed-infected- Asymptomatic- recovered (SEIAR) epidemic diffusion model, (2) the relief supplies distribution based on a multi-objective dynamic stochastic programming model. Specially, the distribution model addresses a hypothetical network of emergency medical logistics with considering emergency medical reserve centers (EMRCs), epidemic areas and e-commerce warehousing centers as the rescue points. Numerical studies are conducted. The results show that with the cooperation of different epidemic areas and e-commerce warehousing centers, the total cost is 6% lower than without considering cooperation of different epidemic areas, and 9.7% lower than without considering cooperation of e-commerce warehousing centers. Particularly, the total cost is 20% lower than without considering any cooperation. This study demonstrates the importance of cooperation in epidemic prevention, and provides the government with a new idea of emergency relief supplies dispatching, that the rescue efficiency can be improved by mutual rescue between epidemic areas in public health emergency.
新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)给人类带来了巨大的灾难,其影响仍在不断加剧。针对公共卫生突发事件,及时的救援物资是减轻灾害的关键。本文提出了一种应急医疗物流方法,以快速应对紧急疫情。该方法包括两个递归机制:(1)根据修正的易感-暴露-感染-无症状-恢复(SEIAR)传染病扩散模型,对医疗救援需求进行时变预测;(2)基于多目标动态随机规划模型的救援物资分配。特别是,该分配模型解决了一个应急医疗物流网络的假设问题,其中考虑了应急医疗储备中心(EMRC)、疫区和电子商务仓储中心作为救援点。进行了数值研究。结果表明,在不同疫区和电子商务仓储中心的合作下,总成本比不考虑不同疫区的合作降低了 6%,比不考虑电子商务仓储中心的合作降低了 9.7%。特别是,总成本比不考虑任何合作降低了 20%。本研究证明了在疫情防控中合作的重要性,并为政府提供了一种新的应急救援物资调度思路,即在公共卫生突发事件中,疫区之间的相互救援可以提高救援效率。