RTI Health Solutions, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.
GSK, Philadelphia, USA.
Vaccine. 2021 Aug 23;39(36):5187-5197. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.07.029. Epub 2021 Jul 30.
This exploratory study estimates the economic value of the current vaccination program and increased coverage against four preventable diseases in older adults in the United States (US).
A population-based, age-structured economic model was used to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of vaccination against influenza, pertussis, herpes zoster, and pneumococcal disease among US adults aged 50 years and older, accounting for aging of the population. The model used separate decision trees for each disease to project the discounted number of vaccinated individuals, number of disease cases, and direct medical and indirect costs (2018 US$) over a 30-year period. Benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) and net present values were calculated for two primary analyses comparing current vaccination coverage versus no vaccination and comparing increased coverage versus current coverage. Key parameter values were varied in deterministic sensitivity analyses.
Current adult vaccination coverage (vs. no vaccination) is estimated to result in nearly 65 million averted disease cases, $185 billion averted costs of cases, and $136 billion in incremental vaccination costs over a 30-year period from a societal perspective (BCR = 1.4). Increased vaccination coverage (vs. current coverage) is associated with over 33 million additional averted disease cases, $96 billion additional averted costs of cases, and nearly $83 billion in incremental vaccination costs, resulting in a societal BCR of 1.2 over 30 years. Deterministic sensitivity analyses demonstrated that results were most sensitive to disease incidence, vaccine efficacy, and productivity costs for time required for vaccination.
Study results highlight the economic value of vaccination programs for older adults in the US and indicate that efforts to further increase vaccination coverage may be warranted and economically justifiable.
本探索性研究旨在估计美国(US)老年人针对四种可预防疾病的当前疫苗接种计划和增加覆盖范围的经济价值。
采用基于人群的年龄结构经济模型,对 US 50 岁及以上成年人接种流感、百日咳、带状疱疹和肺炎球菌疫苗进行成本效益分析,考虑到人口老龄化。该模型为每种疾病使用单独的决策树,以预测接种人群的贴现人数、疾病病例数以及 30 年内的直接医疗和间接成本(2018 年 US$)。对两种主要分析进行了效益成本比(BCR)和净现值计算,一种是比较当前接种率与不接种,另一种是比较增加接种率与当前接种率。在确定性敏感性分析中,对关键参数值进行了变化。
从社会角度来看,当前的成人疫苗接种率(与不接种相比)估计在 30 年内可预防近 6500 万例疾病,预防 1850 亿美元的疾病成本,并预防 1360 亿美元的额外疫苗接种成本(BCR=1.4)。增加疫苗接种率(与当前接种率相比)与额外预防 3300 多万例疾病、960 亿美元额外预防疾病成本以及近 830 亿美元额外疫苗接种成本有关,在 30 年内的社会 BCR 为 1.2。确定性敏感性分析表明,结果对疾病发病率、疫苗效力和接种所需时间的生产力成本最为敏感。
研究结果突出了疫苗接种计划对美国老年人的经济价值,并表明进一步提高疫苗接种率可能是必要的,并且在经济上是合理的。