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六种肝功能储备模型对肝细胞癌大切除术后肝切除术后肝衰竭预测的外部验证

External Validation of Six Liver Functional Reserve Models to predict Posthepatectomy Liver Failure after Major Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

作者信息

Guo Guangmeng, Lei Zhengqing, Tang Xuewu, Ma Weihu, Si Anfeng, Yang Pinghua, Li Qi, Geng Zhimin, Zhou Jiahua, Cheng Zhangjun

机构信息

Hepato-pancreato-biliary center, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, China.

Department of Surgical Oncology, Qin Huai Medical District of Eastern Theater General Hospital, Nanjing, China.

出版信息

J Cancer. 2021 Jun 26;12(17):5260-5267. doi: 10.7150/jca.58726. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

To validate and compare the predictive ability of albumin-bilirubin model (ALBI) with other 5 liver functional reserve models (APRI, FIB4, MELD, PALBI, King's score) for posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who underwent major hepatectomy. Data of patients undergoing major hepatectomy for HCC from 4 hospitals between January 01, 2008 and December 31, 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. PHLF was evaluated according to the definition of the 50-50 criteria. Performances of six liver functional reserve models were determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plot and decision curve analysis. A total of 745 patients with 103 (13.8%) experienced PHLF were finally included in this study. Among six liver functional reserve models, ALBI showed the highest AUC (0.64, 95% CI: 0.58-0.69) for PHLF. All models showed good calibration and greater net benefit than treating all patients at a limit range of threshold probabilities, but the ALBI demonstrated net benefit across the largest range of threshold probabilities. Subgroup analysis also showed ALBI had good predictive performance in cirrhotic (AUC=0.63) or non-cirrhotic (AUC=0.62) patients. Among the six models, the ALBI model shows more accurate predictive ability for PHLF in HCC patients undergoing major hepatectomy, regardless of having cirrhosis or not.

摘要

为验证并比较白蛋白-胆红素模型(ALBI)与其他5种肝功能储备模型(APRI、FIB4、MELD、PALBI、国王评分)对接受大肝切除术的肝细胞癌(HCC)患者术后肝衰竭(PHLF)的预测能力。对2008年1月1日至2019年12月31日期间4家医院接受HCC大肝切除术患者的数据进行回顾性分析。根据50-50标准的定义评估PHLF。通过受试者操作特征曲线(AUC)下面积、校准图和决策曲线分析来确定6种肝功能储备模型的性能。本研究最终纳入了745例患者,其中103例(13.8%)发生了PHLF。在6种肝功能储备模型中,ALBI对PHLF的AUC最高(0.64,95%CI:0.58-0.69)。所有模型在阈值概率的限制范围内均显示出良好的校准和比治疗所有患者更大的净效益,但ALBI在最大范围的阈值概率内显示出净效益。亚组分析还显示,ALBI在肝硬化(AUC=0.63)或非肝硬化(AUC=0.62)患者中具有良好的预测性能。在这6种模型中,无论有无肝硬化,ALBI模型对接受大肝切除术的HCC患者的PHLF显示出更准确的预测能力。

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