NOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS), Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 1070-312, Lisboa, Portugal.
Centre of Geographic Studies, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Lisbon, Rua Branca Edmée Marques, 1600-276, Lisbon, Portugal.
Environ Monit Assess. 2021 Aug 3;193(9):547. doi: 10.1007/s10661-021-09336-z.
Assessing carbon storage and sequestration is key for defining effective conservation actions to mitigate climate change. Forest species changes have direct impacts on carbon stocks and may lead to undesirable climate trade-offs. In this paper, we measure aboveground biomass (AGB) and the impact of forest changes on climate regulation through three land policy scenarios by 2030 in continental Portugal. We found that a High intervention scenario, supported by an important increase in "Other coniferous trees" class, will provide 29.5% more of carbon sequestration, whereas a Low intervention scenario, in which there is a moderate increase in all forest classes, will result in an increase of 5.7%. A business as usual (BAU) scenario, supported by an increase in eucalyptus forests and a decrease in autochthonous species, will decrease carbon sequestration (-2.7%), particularly Lisboa, Algarve and North regions. Economic valuation shows that the High intervention scenario will generate the highest economic outcome for climate regulation by 2030. This study provides a spatial-based methodology for monitoring carbon sequestration and new insights about the impact of policies for Green House Gas (GHG) mitigation, supporting the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals achievement.
评估碳储存和固存对于确定减轻气候变化的有效保护措施至关重要。森林物种变化对碳储量有直接影响，并可能导致不理想的气候权衡。在本文中，我们通过 2030 年在葡萄牙大陆的三个土地政策情景来衡量地上生物量（AGB）和森林变化对气候调节的影响。我们发现，一个高干预情景，支持“其他针叶树”类别的重要增加，将提供 29.5%以上的碳固存，而一个低干预情景，所有森林类别的适度增加，将导致增加 5.7%。一个照常营业（BAU）情景，支持桉树森林的增加和本地物种的减少，将减少碳固存（-2.7%），特别是里斯本、阿尔加维地区和北部地区。经济评估表明，高干预情景将在 2030 年前为气候调节产生最高的经济收益。本研究提供了一种基于空间的方法来监测碳固存，并提供了关于温室气体（GHG）缓解政策影响的新见解，支持 2030 年可持续发展目标的实现。
