Department of Physics, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, CO, USA.
Department of Mathematical and Statistical Science, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, CO, USA; Semeion Research Center of Sciences of Communication, Rome, Italy.
Comput Biol Med. 2021 Sep;136:104670. doi: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2021.104670. Epub 2021 Jul 21.
The first case of COVID-19 in USA was reported on January 20, 2020. The number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and death has increased since the first reported case and the outbreak has appeared in all states. This paper analyzes disease outbreak using Topological Weighted Centroid (TWC), which is a data driven intelligent geographical dynamical system that models disease spread in space and time. In this analysis the COVID-19 cases in USA on March 26, 2020 as provided by Johns Hopkins University is used. The COVID-19 outbreak is mapped by the TWC method. We were able to predict and capture some features of the pandemic spread using the early data. Although we have used the geographical distance from the latitude and longitude coordinates, our results indicate that one of the main paths of diseases spread are arguably airline routes. In this analysis, we used a large set of data. A modified version of TWC, is named TWC-Windowing to elaborate the effect of data from all places.
美国首例 COVID-19 病例于 2020 年 1 月 20 日报告。自首例报告以来，COVID-19 确诊病例和死亡人数有所增加，疫情已在所有州出现。本文使用拓扑加权质心（TWC）分析疾病爆发，这是一种数据驱动的智能地理动力系统，可对疾病在空间和时间上的传播进行建模。在这项分析中，使用了约翰霍普金斯大学提供的 2020 年 3 月 26 日美国的 COVID-19 病例数据。TWC 方法对 COVID-19 爆发进行了映射。我们能够使用早期数据预测并捕捉到大流行传播的一些特征。尽管我们已经使用了地理位置（经纬度坐标）上的地理距离，但我们的结果表明，疾病传播的主要途径之一可以说是航空路线。在这项分析中，我们使用了大量的数据。TWC 的一个修改版本，命名为 TWC-Windowing，用于详细说明来自所有地方的数据的影响。
