Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad, Pakistan; Earth System Physics, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy.
Instituto de Recursos Naturais, Universidade Federal de Itajubá, Brazil; Earth System Physics, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Nov 25;797:149139. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149139. Epub 2021 Jul 20.
There is research evidence that due to global warming, global precipitation and monsoon area have shown a shift which needs to be analyzed at regional scale. This study analyses future precipitation and monsoon spatial shift over Pakistan and Upper Indus Basin (UIB) based on latest Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) high resolution projections (25 km) for the South Asian domain. Three global climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) (MIROC5, NorESM1-M and MPI-ESM-MR) provided the lateral boundary conditions for the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) under Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results indicate that JJA precipitation over Upper Indus Basin (UIB which also includes North Pakistan) is projected to increase more under RCP8.5 and less under RCP2.6 while for Pakistan it shows slightly increase (decrease) in RCP2.6 (RCP8.5). The results also show a projected expansion in monsoon area in UIB and northward shift of MCR which corresponds with future precipitation changes in the area and hence indicate the penetration of monsoon system over UIB under higher warming scenario. The changes in monsoon precipitation and domain are related to the changes in wind circulation patterns at 850 hPa and 200 hPa atmospheric levels.
有研究证据表明，由于全球变暖，全球降水量和季风区已经出现了转移，需要在区域尺度上进行分析。本研究基于南亚地区最新的协调区域气候降尺度实验-协调区域评估输出（CORDEX-CORE）高分辨率预测（25 公里），分析了巴基斯坦和上印度河流域（UIB）未来降水和季风空间转移。来自耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）的三个全球气候模式（MIROC5、NorESM1-M 和 MPI-ESM-MR）为区域气候模型（RegCM4）提供了代表浓度路径 2.6（RCP2.6）和 RCP8.5 情景下的水平边界条件。结果表明，上印度河流域（UIB 也包括北巴基斯坦）的 JJA 降水预计在 RCP8.5 下会增加更多，在 RCP2.6 下会减少，而巴基斯坦的降水则略有增加（减少）。结果还表明，UIB 季风区面积预计会扩大，MCR 会向北转移，这与该地区未来降水的变化相对应，因此表明在较高的变暖情景下，季风系统会渗透到 UIB 地区。季风降水和区域的变化与 850 hPa 和 200 hPa 大气水平的风环流模式变化有关。
