Planès T, Delbecq S, Pommier-Budinger V, Bénard E
ISAE-SUPAERO, Université de Toulouse, 10 Avenue Edouard Belin, 31400, Toulouse, France.
ISAE-SUPAERO, Université de Toulouse, 10 Avenue Edouard Belin, 31400, Toulouse, France.
J Environ Manage. 2021 Jul 1;295:113079. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113079.
In 2019, aviation was responsible for 2.6% of world CO emissions as well as additional climate impacts such as contrails. Like all industrial sectors, the aviation sector must implement measures to reduce its climate impact. This paper focuses on the simulation and evaluation of climate scenarios for air transport. For this purpose, a specific tool (CAST for "Climate and Aviation - Sustainable Trajectories") has been developed at ISAE-SUPAERO. This tool follows a methodology for the assessment of climate impacts adapted to aviation. Firstly, models for the main levers of action, such as air traffic, aircraft energy consumption and energy decarbonization, are provided using trend projections from historical data or assumptions from the literature. Second, the evaluation of scenarios is based on aviation carbon budgets, which are also extended to non-CO effects using the concept of GWP*. Several scenario analyses are performed in this paper using CAST allowing different conclusions to be drawn. For instance, the modelling of the scenarios based on the more recent ATAG (Air Transport Action Group) commitments shows that aviation would consume 6.5% of the world carbon budget for +1.5 °C. Some illustrative scenarios are also proposed. By allocating 2.6% of the world carbon budget to aviation, it is shown that air transport is compatible with a +2 °C trajectory when the annual growth rate of air traffic varies between -1.8% and +2.9%, depending on the technological improvements considered. However, using the same methodology for a +1.5 °C trajectory shows that a drastic decrease in air traffic is necessary. Lastly, analyses including non-CO effects emphasize the importance of implementing specific strategies for mitigating contrails.
2019年，航空业的二氧化碳排放量占全球的2.6%，此外还产生了诸如凝结尾迹等其他气候影响。与所有工业部门一样，航空业必须采取措施减少其对气候的影响。本文重点关注航空运输气候情景的模拟与评估。为此，ISAE - SUPAERO研发了一种特定工具（“气候与航空——可持续轨迹”的CAST）。该工具遵循一种适用于航空业的气候影响评估方法。首先，利用历史数据的趋势预测或文献中的假设，提供了主要行动杠杆的模型，如空中交通、飞机能耗和能源脱碳。其次，情景评估基于航空碳预算，同时利用全球变暖潜能值*的概念将其扩展到非二氧化碳影响。本文使用CAST进行了多次情景分析，得出了不同结论。例如，基于最新的航空运输行动小组（ATAG）承诺对情景进行建模表明，在升温1.5摄氏度的情况下，航空业将消耗全球碳预算的6.5%。还提出了一些示例情景。通过将全球碳预算的2.6%分配给航空业，结果表明，根据所考虑的技术改进情况，当空中交通年增长率在-1.8%至+2.9%之间变化时，航空运输与升温2摄氏度的轨迹是兼容的。然而，对升温1.5摄氏度的轨迹使用相同方法表明，有必要大幅减少空中交通。最后，包括非二氧化碳影响的分析强调了实施缓解凝结尾迹具体策略的重要性。
