Individual and Combined Performance of Indicators of Overall and Central Obesity to Estimate Coronary Risk in ELSA-Brasil Participants.

BACKGROUND

Anthropometric indicators have been used in clinical practice and epidemiological studies for screening of health risk factors.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the individual discriminatory power of body adiposity index (BAI), body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-hip-ratio (WHR) to identify individuals at risk for coronary heart disease and to evaluate whether combinations of anthropometric indicators of overall obesity with indicators of central obesity improve predictive ability in adults.

METHODS

A total of 15,092 participants (54.4% women) aged 35-74years were assessed at baseline of the ELSA-Brasil study. Individuals at risk for coronary heart disease were identified using the Framingham risk score and divided into very-high risk (VHR 20%) and high risk (HR10%). Measures of diagnostic accuracy and area under the ROC curves (AUC) were analyzed. Associations were tested using Poisson regression analysis with robust variance, according to age and sex. Statistical significance was set at 5%.

RESULTS

WHR showed the highest discriminatory power for VHR20% in all groups, with higher predictive ability in women (AUC: 0.802; 95%CI: 0.748-0.856 vs 0.657; 95%CI: 0.630-0.683 in the age range of 35-59 years, and AUC: 0.668; 95%CI: 0.621-0.715 vs 0.611; 95%CI: 0.587-0.635 in the age range of 60-74 years). BAI + WHR and BMI + WHR had the highest predictive power in men and women, respectively. Combinations of indicators of overall obesity with indicators of central obesity were more strongly associated with VHR20% and HR10% in all subgroups.

CONCLUSION

Combined indicators had greater predictive ability than indicators taken individually. BAI+ WHR and BMI + WHR were the best estimators of coronary risk in men and women, respectively, and WHR had the best individual performance.