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聚甲基丙烯酸甲酯回收利用经济性的风险分析

Risk Analysis on PMMA Recycling Economics.

作者信息

De Tommaso Jacopo, Dubois Jean-Luc

机构信息

ARKEMA France, 420 Rue d'Estienne d'Orves, 92705 Colombes, France.

出版信息

Polymers (Basel). 2021 Aug 15;13(16):2724. doi: 10.3390/polym13162724.

DOI:10.3390/polym13162724
PMID:34451263
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8398960/
Abstract

Poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) is a versatile polymer with a forecast market of 4 Mtons/y by 2025, and 6 USD billion by 2027. Each year, 10% of the produced cast sheets, extrusion sheets, or granules PMMA end up as post-production waste, accounting for approximately 30 000 tons/y in Europe only. To guide the future recycling efforts, we investigated the risks of depolymerization process economics for different PMMA scraps feedstock, capital expenditure (CAPEX), and regenerated MMA (r-MMA) prices via a Monte-Carlo simulation. An analysis of plastic recycling plants operating with similar technologies confirmed how a maximum 10 M USD plant (median cost) is what a company should aim for, based on our hypothesis. The capital investment and the r-MMA quality have the main impacts on the profitability. Depending on the pursued outcome, we identified three most suitable scenarios. Lower capital-intensive plants (Scenarios 4 and 8) provide the fastest payback time, but this generates a lower quality monomer, and therefore lower appeal on the long term. On 10 or 20 years of operation, companies should target the very best r-MMA quality, to achieve the highest net present value (Scenario 6). Product quality comes from the feedstock choice, depolymerization, and purification technologies. Counterintuitively, a plant processing low quality scraps available for free (Scenario 7), and therefore producing low purity r-MMA, has the highest probability of negative net present value after 10 years of operation, making it a high-risk scenario. Western countries (especially Europe), call for more and more pure r-MMA, hopefully comparable to the virgin material. With legislations on recycled products becoming more stringent, low quality product might not find a market in the future. To convince shareholders and government bodies, companies should demonstrate how funds and subsidies directly translate into higher quality products (more attractive to costumers), more economically viable, and with a wider market.

摘要

聚甲基丙烯酸甲酯（PMMA）是一种用途广泛的聚合物，预计到2025年市场规模将达到400万吨/年，到2027年将达到60亿美元。每年，生产的浇铸片材、挤出片材或粒状PMMA中有10%最终成为生产后废料，仅在欧洲每年就约有30000吨。为指导未来的回收工作，我们通过蒙特卡洛模拟研究了不同PMMA废料原料、资本支出（CAPEX）和再生甲基丙烯酸甲酯（r-MMA）价格下解聚过程经济性的风险。对采用类似技术运营的塑料回收厂的分析证实，根据我们的假设，一家公司应争取建设成本最高为1000万美元的工厂（成本中位数）。资本投资和r-MMA质量对盈利能力有主要影响。根据追求的结果，我们确定了三种最合适的方案。资本密集度较低的工厂（方案4和8）回报期最短，但会产生质量较低的单体，因此从长期来看吸引力较低。在运营10年或20年时，公司应追求最高质量的r-MMA，以实现最高净现值（方案6）。产品质量取决于原料选择、解聚和提纯技术。与直觉相反的是，一家处理免费可得的低质量废料的工厂（方案7），因此生产低纯度的r-MMA，在运营10年后净现值为负的可能性最高，这使其成为高风险方案。西方国家（尤其是欧洲）对r-MMA的纯度要求越来越高，希望能与原生材料相媲美。随着对回收产品的法规变得更加严格，低质量产品未来可能找不到市场。为了说服股东和政府机构，公司应展示资金和补贴如何直接转化为更高质量的产品（对客户更有吸引力）、更具经济可行性且市场更广阔。

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