Projected Status of the Ghost Orchid () in Florida during the Next Decade Based on Temporal Dynamic Studies Spanning Six Years.

The enigmatic ghost orchid, (Lindley) Bentham ex Rolfe, is a showy leafless epiphyte restricted to low-lying forests in south Florida and western Cuba. Because of its appeal and reputation for being difficult to cultivate, remains vulnerable to poaching and environmental changes. About 2000 individuals are assumed to remain in Florida, most confined within water-filled cypress domes in the Fakahatchee Strand, but virtually no information exists on current population numbers throughout the region. This paper provides a preliminary summary of the ghost orchid's projected status based on six continuous years of data collected within the Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge (FPNWR) from 2015-2020. The orchids were clustered in seven different populations, each separated by ca. 5 km. Quantitative data were collected spanning three age classes (seedlings, juveniles, mature plants) for each population, and survival, flowering, and fruiting were noted. To estimate the temporal variability in the demographic rates, size-structured integral projection models (IPMs) were constructed for each annual transition (e.g., 2015-2016, 2016-2017). Results for all seven populations pooled suggest that numbers will decline by 20% during the next decade in the absence of external adverse factors. Seedling recruitment is not expected to keep pace with the projected decline. Only one population, which was also from the wettest location, continuously harbored spontaneous seedlings, suggesting that most populations within the FPNWR lack conditions suitable for reproduction.