Wildlife Biology Program, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, USA.
Ecol Lett. 2011 Jan;14(1):1-8. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01540.x. Epub 2010 Nov 12.
Matrix projection models are among the most widely used tools in plant ecology. However, the way in which plant ecologists use and interpret these models differs from the way in which they are presented in the broader academic literature. In contrast to calls from earlier reviews, most studies of plant populations are based on < 5 matrices and present simple metrics such as deterministic population growth rates. However, plant ecologists also cautioned against literal interpretation of model predictions. Although academic studies have emphasized testing quantitative model predictions, such forecasts are not the way in which plant ecologists find matrix models to be most useful. Improving forecasting ability would necessitate increased model complexity and longer studies. Therefore, in addition to longer term studies with better links to environmental drivers, priorities for research include critically evaluating relative/comparative uses of matrix models and asking how we can use many short-term studies to understand long-term population dynamics.
矩阵投影模型是植物生态学中应用最广泛的工具之一。然而，植物生态学家使用和解释这些模型的方式与它们在更广泛的学术文献中的呈现方式不同。与早期综述的呼吁形成对比的是，大多数植物种群研究基于<5 个矩阵，并呈现简单的指标，如确定性种群增长率。然而，植物生态学家也警告不要对模型预测进行字面解释。尽管学术研究强调了对定量模型预测的检验，但这些预测并不是植物生态学家认为矩阵模型最有用的方式。提高预测能力将需要增加模型的复杂性和延长研究时间。因此，除了与环境驱动因素更好地联系起来的长期研究外，研究的重点还包括批判性地评估矩阵模型的相对/比较用途，并询问我们如何利用许多短期研究来了解长期种群动态。
