Ruggles Steven, Magnuson Diana L
University of Minnesota.
Bethel University.
J Am Hist. 2020 Jun;107(1):19-51. doi: 10.1093/jahist/jaaa007. Epub 2020 Jun 1.
This article traces the history of the methods and technology used by the Census Bureau to convert individual census responses into published tabulations. We argue that political considerations not only shaped the content and applications of the census, but also the mechanics of census taking. By focusing on federal responses to a specific technical challenge over a very long span, our narrative illuminates the long-run effects of shifting societal preoccupations on bureaucratic decision-making. The case study of the census reflects the critical and shifting role of the state and the private sector in the development of technology. For most of the twentieth century, Census Bureau administrators resisted private-sector intrusion into data capture and processing operations, but beginning in the mid-1990s, the Census Bureau increasingly turned to outside vendors from the private sector for data capture and processing. This privatization led to rapidly escalating costs, reduced productivity, near catastrophic failures of the 2000 and 2010 censuses, and high risks for the 2020 census.
本文追溯了人口普查局将个人普查回复转化为已发布统计表所使用的方法和技术的历史。我们认为，政治考量不仅塑造了人口普查的内容和应用，还影响了人口普查的操作机制。通过聚焦联邦政府在很长一段时间内对特定技术挑战的应对，我们的叙述揭示了社会关注点的变化对官僚决策的长期影响。人口普查的案例研究反映了国家和私营部门在技术发展中关键且不断变化的角色。在20世纪的大部分时间里，人口普查局管理人员抵制私营部门介入数据采集和处理业务，但从20世纪90年代中期开始，人口普查局越来越多地转向私营部门的外部供应商进行数据采集和处理。这种私有化导致成本迅速上升、生产率下降、2000年和2010年人口普查几近灾难性失败，以及2020年人口普查面临高风险。
