Applied Energy Division, SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Menlo Park, CA 94025.
National Energy Technology Laboratory, Pittsburgh, PA 15236.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Sep 14;118(37). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2022196118.
Reducing the cost of high-salinity (>75 g/L total dissolved solids) brine concentration technology would unlock the potential for vast inland water supplies and promote the safe management of concentrated aqueous waste streams. Impactful innovation will target component performance improvements and cost reductions that yield the highest impact on system costs, but the desalination community lacks methods for quantitatively evaluating the value of innovation or the robustness of technology platforms relative to competing technologies. This work proposes a suite of methods built on process-based cost optimization models that explicitly address the complexities of membrane-separation processes, namely that these processes comprise dozens of nonlinearly interacting components and that innovation can occur in more than one component at a time. We begin by demonstrating the merit of performing simple parametric sensitivity analysis on component performance and cost to guide the selection of materials and manufacturing methods that reduce system costs. A more rigorous implementation of this approach relates improvements in component performance to increases in component costs, helping to further discern high-impact innovation trajectories. The most advanced implementation includes a stochastic simulation of the value of innovation that accounts for both the expected impact of a component innovation on reducing system costs and the potential for improvements in other components. Finally, we apply these methods to identify innovations with the highest probability of substantially reducing the levelized cost of water from emerging membrane processes for high-salinity brine treatment.
降低高盐度（总溶解固体 >75 g/L）盐水浓缩技术的成本将释放出内陆大量水资源的潜力，并促进浓盐水的安全管理。有影响力的创新将针对部件性能的提高和成本的降低，以对系统成本产生最大影响，但脱盐界缺乏定量评估创新价值或技术平台相对于竞争技术稳健性的方法。这项工作提出了一系列方法，这些方法建立在基于过程的成本优化模型之上，可以明确解决膜分离过程的复杂性，即这些过程由数十个非线性相互作用的组件组成，并且创新可以同时发生在多个组件中。我们首先通过对部件性能和成本进行简单的参数敏感性分析来证明其优势，以指导选择降低系统成本的材料和制造方法。这种方法的更严格实施将组件性能的提高与组件成本的增加联系起来，有助于进一步识别具有高影响力的创新轨迹。最先进的实施方法包括对创新价值的随机模拟，其中包括组件创新对降低系统成本的预期影响以及其他组件改进的潜力。最后，我们应用这些方法来确定具有降低新兴膜处理高盐度盐水处理水平化成本的最高概率的创新。
