Truszkowska Agnieszka, Thakore Malav, Zino Lorenzo, Butail Sachit, Caroppo Emanuele, Jiang Zhong-Ping, Rizzo Alessandro, Porfiri Maurizio
Center for Urban Science and Progress Tandon School of Engineering New York University 370 Jay Street Brooklyn NY 11201 USA.
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Tandon School of Engineering New York University Six MetroTech Center Brooklyn NY 11201 USA.
Adv Theory Simul. 2021 Sep;4(9):2100157. doi: 10.1002/adts.202100157. Epub 2021 Aug 1.
As COVID-19 vaccine is being rolled out in the US, public health authorities are gradually reopening the economy. To date, there is no consensus on a common approach among local authorities. Here, a high-resolution agent-based model is proposed to examine the interplay between the increased immunity afforded by the vaccine roll-out and the transmission risks associated with reopening efforts. The model faithfully reproduces the demographics, spatial layout, and mobility patterns of the town of New Rochelle, NY - representative of the urban fabric of the US. Model predictions warrant caution in the reopening under the current rate at which people are being vaccinated, whereby increasing access to social gatherings in leisure locations and households at a 1% daily rate can lead to a 28% increase in the fatality rate within the next three months. The vaccine roll-out plays a crucial role on the safety of reopening: doubling the current vaccination rate is predicted to be sufficient for safe, rapid reopening.
随着新冠疫苗在美国逐步推广，公共卫生当局正在逐步重启经济。迄今为止，地方当局对于采用何种通用方法尚未达成共识。在此，我们提出了一种基于智能体的高分辨率模型，以研究疫苗推广带来的免疫力提升与重启经济努力相关的传播风险之间的相互作用。该模型如实地再现了纽约州新罗谢尔镇的人口统计、空间布局和流动模式，而新罗谢尔镇是美国城市结构的代表。模型预测表明，按照目前的疫苗接种速度重启经济需谨慎行事，即休闲场所和家庭中社交聚会的参与人数每天增加1%，可能会导致未来三个月内死亡率上升28%。疫苗推广对于安全重启经济起着至关重要的作用：预计将当前疫苗接种率提高一倍足以实现安全、快速重启。
