新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）倍增时间和再生数的估计

Estimation of the doubling time and reproduction number for COVID-19.

作者信息

Ahmed Shamim, Shemanto Mohammad, Azhari Hasin, Zakaria Golam

机构信息

Hochschule Anhalt, Fachbereich Elektrotechnik, Maschinenbau und Wirtschaftsingenieurwesen, Köthen, Germany.

Gono Bishwabidyalay, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

出版信息

Comput Methods Biomech Biomed Engin. 2022 May;25(6):668-674. doi: 10.1080/10255842.2021.1972292. Epub 2021 Sep 17.

DOI:10.1080/10255842.2021.1972292

PMID:34533071

Abstract

In this paper, we have calculated the basic reproduction number () and doubling time () for the novel Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The calculation is performed for March 2020 from the data provided by worldometer. We have investigated the data for Germany and Bangladesh. The calculation of is performed based on SIR model. The parameter is estimated based on the new cases of each day. Since and in use to judge the lockdowns and other measures to prevent spreading of the virus, we have provided simple approximation of both parameters.

摘要

在本文中，我们计算了2019年新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的基本繁殖数（）和倍增时间（）。计算是根据世界ometers提供的数据，针对2020年3月进行的。我们研究了德国和孟加拉国的数据。基本繁殖数的计算基于SIR模型。该参数是根据每天的新增病例估算的。由于基本繁殖数和倍增时间用于判断封锁及其他防止病毒传播的措施，我们给出了这两个参数的简单近似值。