Application of a combinatorial approach for soil organic carbon mapping in hills.

Accurate mapping of soil organic carbon (SOC) is critical to improve C management and develop sustainable management policies. However, it is constrained by local variations of the model parameters under complex topography, especially in hills. This study applied a methodological framework to optimize the spatial prediction of SOC in the hilly areas during 1981-2012 by quantifying the relative importance of environmental factors, which include both qualitative factors and quantitative variables. Results showed that SOC increased twofold with a moderate spatial dependence during the past 32 years. During this period, land use patterns, soil groups, topographic factors, and vegetation coverage had significant impacts on the SOC changes (p < 0.01). Specifically, the impact of land use patterns has exceeded the impact of soil groups and became the dominant factor affecting SOC changes. Meanwhile, impacts from the topographic factors and vegetation coverage have substantially declined. Based on those results, a combinatorial approach (LS_RBF_HASM) was developed to map SOC using radial basis function neural network (RBF) and high accuracy surface modelling (HASM), and to generate more detailed spatial mapping relationships between SOC and the affecting factors. Compared with ordinary kriging (OK), land use-soil group units (LS) and HASM combined (LS_HASM), multiple linear regression (MLR) and HASM combined with LS (LS_MLR_HASM); LS_RBF_HASM showed a better performance with a decline of 6.3%-37.7% prediction errors and more accurate spatial patterns due to the quantitative combination of auxiliary environmental variables and more information on the SOC variations within local factors captured by RBF and HASM. Additionally, MLR may partially undermine the relationship of the internal spatial structure due to the highly nonlinear relation between SOC and environmental variables. This methodological framework highlights the optimization of more environmental factors and the calculation of spatial variability within local factors and provides a more accurate approach for SOC mapping in hills.