Department of Human Dimensions of Natural Resources, Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1480, USA.
Department of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40292, USA.
Curr Biol. 2021 Nov 22;31(22):5077-5085.e6. doi: 10.1016/j.cub.2021.08.074. Epub 2021 Sep 24.
High-level policy debates surrounding elephant management often dominate global conservation headlines, yet realities for people living with wildlife are not adequately incorporated into policymaking or evident in related discourse. Human health and livelihoods can be severely impacted by wildlife and indirectly by policy outcomes. In landscapes where growing human and elephant (Loxodonta spp. and Elephas maximus) populations compete over limited resources, human-elephant conflict causes crop loss, human injury and death, and retaliatory killing of wildlife. Across Africa, these problems may be increasingly compounded by climate change, which intensifies resource competition and food insecurity. Here, we examine how human-wildlife impacts interact with climate change and household food insecurity across the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area, the world's largest terrestrial transboundary conservation area, spanning five African nations. We use hierarchical Bayesian statistical models to analyze multi-country household data together with longitudinal satellite-based climate measures relevant to rainfed agriculture. We find that crop depredation by wildlife, primarily elephants, impacts 58% of sampled households annually and is associated with significant increases in food insecurity. These wildlife impacts compound effects of changing climate on food insecurity, most notably observed as a 5-day shortening of the rainy season per 10 years across the data record (1981-2018). To advance sustainability goals, global conservation policy must better integrate empirical evidence on the challenges of human-wildlife coexistence into longer term strategies at transboundary scales, specifically in the context of climate change..
高层政策辩论围绕着大象管理,往往主导着全球保护的头条新闻,但与野生动物共存的人们的现实情况并没有充分纳入决策制定,也没有在相关讨论中体现出来。人类的健康和生计可能会受到野生动物的严重影响,也可能会受到政策结果的间接影响。在人与大象(Loxodonta spp.和 Elephas maximus)种群争夺有限资源的景观中,人与大象的冲突会导致作物损失、人员受伤和死亡,以及对野生动物的报复性捕杀。在整个非洲,气候变化可能会使这些问题更加复杂,气候变化加剧了资源竞争和粮食不安全。在这里,我们研究了人与野生动物的相互影响如何与气候变化以及家庭粮食不安全相互作用,研究对象是跨越五个非洲国家的世界上最大的陆地跨境保护区域——卡万戈-赞比西河跨境保护区。我们使用分层贝叶斯统计模型来分析多国家家庭数据,以及与雨养农业相关的长期卫星气候措施。我们发现,野生动物(主要是大象)对农作物的破坏影响了 58%的抽样家庭,每年都会导致粮食不安全状况显著加剧。这些野生动物的影响加剧了气候变化对粮食不安全的影响,最明显的是在整个数据记录(1981-2018 年)中,每 10 年雨季就会缩短 5 天。为了推进可持续发展目标,全球保护政策必须更好地将有关人类与野生动物共存挑战的经验证据纳入跨境规模的长期战略中,特别是在气候变化的背景下。