Tian Xi, Zheng Jianxiang, Hu Lei, Liu Yi, Wen Huwei, Dong Xiaosong
Research Center for Central China Economic and Social Development, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, PR China; Jiangxi Ecological Civilization Research Institute, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, PR China; School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, PR China.
School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, PR China.
Waste Manag. 2021 Nov;135:287-297. doi: 10.1016/j.wasman.2021.09.008. Epub 2021 Sep 22.
The international trade weight of scrap copper has exceeded 6 million tons annually over the past two decades. China introduced the "National Sword" policy in 2017, which brought uncertainty to the international recycling of scrap copper. We use the international scrap copper trade figures from 1998 to 2019 in UN Comtrade, and seek to analyze the impact of China's import ban by setting up a difference-in-differences (DID) model based on the gravity model. The results show that 1) The ban has promoted the development of regional trade and improved the quality of scrap copper in international trade. The unit value of imported scrap copper in China has risen by 58%. 2) China's import ban has reduced the import weight of scrap copper by 68.6% and its value by 44.4% without the influence of other socioeconomic factors. 3) China's import of copper scrap is concentrated in coastal provinces. Guangdong Province has been most heavily affected. The imports of low-quality copper scrap in Guangdong have decreased by 94%. 4) The import ban reduced the environmental impact in China by 36.6%, but the global environmental impact has increased because of the gap in recycling technology, especially in developing countries. These discoveries will be beneficial to predict the future of international scrap copper recovery, and help rule makers formulate trade and environmental policies.
在过去二十年中，废铜的国际贸易量每年超过600万吨。中国在2017年出台了“国家利剑”政策，这给废铜的国际回收带来了不确定性。我们使用联合国商品贸易统计数据库中1998年至2019年的国际废铜贸易数据，并通过基于引力模型建立双重差分（DID）模型来分析中国进口禁令的影响。结果表明：1）该禁令促进了区域贸易发展，提高了国际贸易中废铜的质量。中国进口废铜的单位价值上涨了58%。2）在没有其他社会经济因素影响的情况下，中国的进口禁令使废铜进口重量减少了68.6%，价值减少了44.4%。3）中国的废铜进口集中在沿海省份。广东省受影响最为严重。广东省低质量废铜的进口量减少了94%。4）进口禁令使中国的环境影响降低了36.6%，但由于回收技术的差距，特别是在发展中国家，全球环境影响有所增加。这些发现将有助于预测国际废铜回收的未来，并帮助政策制定者制定贸易和环境政策。
