Centre for Biological Engineering, Gualtar Campus, University of Minho, Braga, 4710 057, Portugal; Faculty of Agriculture, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400, UPM Serdang, Selangor D.E., Malaysia.
J Environ Manage. 2021 Dec 15;300:113785. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113785. Epub 2021 Sep 22.
Palms are iconic plants. Oil palms are very important economically and originate in Africa where they can act as a model for palms in general. The effect of future climate on the growth of oil palm will be very detrimental. Latitudinal migration of tropical crops to climate refuges may be impossible, and longitudinal migration has only been confirmed for oil palm, of all the tropical crops. The previous method to determine the longitudinal trend for oil palm used the longitudes of various countries in Africa and plotted these against the percentage suitable climate for growing oil palms in each country. An increasing longitudinal trend was observed from west to east. However, the longitudes of the countries were randomly distributed which may have introduced bias and the procedure was time consuming. The present report presents an optimised and systematic procedure that divided the regions, as presented on a map derived from a CLIMEX model, into ten equal sectors and the percentage suitable climates for growing oil palm were determined for each sector. This approach was quicker, systematic and straight forward and will be useful for management of oil palm plantations under climate change. The method confirmed and validated the trends reported in the original method although the suitability values were often lower and there was less spread of values around the trend. The values for the CSIRO MK3.0 and MIROC H models demonstrated considerable similarities to each other, contributing to validation of the method. The procedure of dividing maps equally into sectors derived from models, could be used for other crops, regions, or systems more generally, where the alternative may be a more superficial visual examination of the maps. Methods are required to mitigate the effects of climate change and stakeholders need to contribute more actively to the current climate debate with tangible actions.
手掌是标志性的植物。油棕在经济上非常重要，原产于非洲，在那里它们可以作为一般棕榈的模型。未来气候对油棕生长的影响将是非常不利的。热带作物向气候避难所的纬度迁移可能是不可能的，而纵向迁移仅在油棕中得到证实，在所有热带作物中。以前确定油棕纵向趋势的方法是使用非洲各国的经度，并将这些经度与每个国家适合种植油棕的气候百分比相对应。从西向东观察到了一个逐渐增加的纵向趋势。然而，各国的经度是随机分布的，这可能引入了偏差，并且该过程耗时。本报告提出了一种优化和系统的方法，该方法将地图上显示的区域（源自 CLIMEX 模型）划分为十个相等的扇区，并确定每个扇区适合种植油棕的气候百分比。这种方法更快、更系统、更直接，将有助于在气候变化下管理油棕种植园。该方法证实并验证了原始方法报告的趋势，尽管适用性值通常较低，并且围绕趋势的值的分布较少。CSIRO MK3.0 和 MIROC H 模型的值彼此非常相似，这有助于验证该方法。从模型中平等地划分地图的扇区的过程可以用于其他作物、地区或更一般的系统，在这些情况下，替代方案可能是对地图进行更肤浅的视觉检查。需要采取方法来减轻气候变化的影响，利益相关者需要通过切实行动更积极地参与当前的气候辩论。
