Cao Xianghui, Huo Shouliang, Zhang Hanxiao, Zheng Jiaqi, He Zhuoshi, Ma Chunzi, Song Shuai
State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Science, Beijing 100012, China.
State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Science, Beijing 100012, China.
J Environ Sci (China). 2021 Nov;109:15-25. doi: 10.1016/j.jes.2021.02.028. Epub 2021 Mar 11.
Emission intensity and climate change control the transport flux and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in multiple environmental compartments. This study applied a multimedia model (BETR model) to explore alternations in the spatio-temporal trends of concentrations and transport flux of benzopyrene (BaP), phenanthrene (Phe), perfluorooctane sulfonates (PFOS) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the Chaohu watershed, located in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China in response to changes in source emissions and climate. The potential historic and future risks of these pollutants also were assessed. The results suggest that current trends in concentrations and transport were similar to that of their emissions between 2005 and 2018. During the next 100 years, temporal trends and spatial patterns were not predicted to change significantly, which is consistent with climate change. Based on sensitivity and correlation analyses, climate change had significant effects on multi-media concentrations and transport fluxes of BaP, Phe, PFOS and PCBs, and rainfall intensity was the predominant controlling factor. Risk quotients (RQs) of BaP and Phe-in soil increased from 0.42 to 0.95 and 0.06 to 0.35, respectively, from 2005 to 2090, indicating potential risks. The RQs of the other examined contaminants exhibited little potential risk in soil, water, or sediment. Based on spatial patterns, it was inferred that the ecosystem around Lake Chaohu is the most at risk. The study provides insights needed for local pollution control of POPs in the Chaohu watershed. In addition, the developed approach can be applied to other watersheds world-wide.
排放强度和气候变化控制着持久性有机污染物（POPs）在多个环境介质中的传输通量和归宿。本研究应用多媒体模型（BETR模型），探讨了位于中国长江下游的巢湖流域中苯并[a]芘（BaP）、菲（Phe）、全氟辛烷磺酸（PFOS）和多氯联苯（PCBs）的浓度和传输通量的时空趋势变化，以应对源排放和气候的变化。还评估了这些污染物潜在的历史和未来风险。结果表明，2005年至2018年期间，浓度和传输的当前趋势与其排放趋势相似。在未来100年内，时间趋势和空间格局预计不会发生显著变化，这与气候变化一致。基于敏感性和相关性分析，气候变化对BaP、Phe、PFOS和PCBs的多媒体浓度和传输通量有显著影响，降雨强度是主要控制因素。从2005年到2090年，土壤中BaP和Phe的风险商（RQs）分别从0.42增加到0.95和从0.06增加到0.35，表明存在潜在风险。其他检测到的污染物在土壤、水或沉积物中的RQs显示出潜在风险较小。基于空间格局推断，巢湖周边生态系统风险最大。该研究为巢湖流域持久性有机污染物的局部污染控制提供了所需的见解。此外，所开发的方法可应用于全球其他流域。
