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从印度尼西亚的 COVID-19 疫苗接种中吸取的经验教训:经验、挑战和机遇。

Lessons learned from COVID-19 vaccination in Indonesia: experiences, challenges, and opportunities.

机构信息

Ministry of Finance Republic of Indonesia.

Prasetiya Mulya University.

出版信息

Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2021 Nov 2;17(11):3898-3906. doi: 10.1080/21645515.2021.1975450. Epub 2021 Oct 6.

Abstract

The development of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines as well as their delivery to people's arms are the best hope for ending the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the implementation of vaccination varies greatly across countries, with the developing countries lagging behind. This study investigates Indonesia's vaccination experiences, challenges, and acceleration over the course of implementation period. This study provides simulations to estimate the vaccination rate using time-series forecasting machine learning. We use Administrative data and Survey results in our analysis. Our findings suggest limited vaccine availability had caused low-coverage vaccination implementation in the early stage of vaccination implementation period. However, following the increased availability of vaccine, the vaccination rate accelerates up to 600% times. The government of Indonesia utilized strategic public places, public and private offices, and engaging private sectors in the phase two implementation to accelerate the vaccination implementation. Indonesia might reach 63.1 million individuals vaccinated at the end of March 2022, or 35% of the targeted population with up to April 2021 vaccination rate. To accelerate, government introduced a number of new strategies including door-to-door persuasion through neighborhood association (RT), educating individuals, and providing transportation from their home to the vaccination facility. We expect new strategies could further improve vaccination speed by around 1.4 million to 3.5 million individuals per day.

摘要

开发安全有效的 COVID-19 疫苗并将其送到人们的手中是结束 COVID-19 大流行的最佳希望。然而,各国在疫苗接种的实施方面存在很大差异,发展中国家较为落后。本研究调查了印度尼西亚在实施期间的疫苗接种经验、挑战和加速情况。本研究提供了使用时间序列预测机器学习来估计疫苗接种率的模拟。我们在分析中使用了行政数据和调查结果。我们的研究结果表明,疫苗供应有限导致疫苗接种实施初期的接种率较低。然而,随着疫苗供应量的增加,疫苗接种率加速至原来的 600%倍。印度尼西亚政府在实施的第二阶段利用战略公共场所、公共和私人办公室以及私营部门来加速疫苗接种的实施。到 2022 年 3 月底,印度尼西亚可能会有 6310 万人接种疫苗,或者按照 2021 年 4 月的疫苗接种率,达到目标人口的 35%。为了加速疫苗接种,政府引入了一些新策略,包括通过邻里协会(RT)挨家挨户进行劝说、教育个人以及提供从家中到接种点的交通服务。我们预计新策略每天可以将疫苗接种速度提高 140 万至 350 万人。

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