CT-derived quantitative liver volumetric parameters for prediction of severe esophageal varices and the risk of first variceal hemorrhage.

PURPOSE

To assess whether CT (computed tomography)-derived quantitative parameters of liver lobe volume can predict severe esophageal varices (EV) and the risk of first varicealhemorrhage (FVH) in patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

A total of 217 endoscopically confirmed EV patients were included in this retrospective study and were divided into a low-risk EV group (mild-to-moderate EV, n = 83) and a high-risk EV group (severe EV, n = 134), a FVH group (n = 17) and a non-FVH group (n = 27), patients' clinical findings were recorded. The left, right, caudate lobe, total liver volume and the corresponding functional volume were measured respectively, and the ratio of caudate volume/total volume (CV/TV), caudate functional volume/total functional volume (CFV/TFV) were calculated. Univariate and multivariate logistic analysis were used to determine the independent factors and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed to evaluate the diagnostic performance.

RESULTS

CV, CFV, CV/TV, CFV/TFV were significantly different in the EV severity study and FVH study (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that CV/TV and ascites were independent predictive factors for severe EV, a predictive model combing those two factors revealed a satisfactory diagnostic performance (area under the curve (AUC), 0.853, 95 %CI 0.797-0.905). Furthermore, CV/TV and the presence of red color sign under endoscopy were found to be independent predictive factors for FVH, and the former showed a better discriminative performance than the latter (AUC, 0.851 vs 0.779).

CONCLUSIONS

CT-derived quantitative parameters of CV, CFV, CV/TV, CFV/TFV may be used as an alternative to endoscopy in predicting severe varices and the risk of bleeding.