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新型免疫相关预测模型对 COVID-19 重症患者的早期预测。

Early Prediction of Severe COVID-19 in Patients by a Novel Immune-Related Predictive Model.

机构信息

Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Infection and Immunology, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Immune Diseases and Gout, Department of Immunology, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.

State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.

出版信息

mSphere. 2021 Oct 27;6(5):e0075221. doi: 10.1128/mSphere.00752-21. Epub 2021 Oct 13.

Abstract

During the progression of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), immune response and inflammation reactions are dynamic events that develop rapidly and are associated with the severity of disease. Here, we aimed to develop a predictive model based on the immune and inflammatory response to discriminate patients with severe COVID-19. COVID-19 patients were enrolled, and their demographic and immune inflammatory reaction indicators were collected and analyzed. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the independent predictors, which were further used to construct a predictive model. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve, and optimal diagnostic threshold was calculated; these were further validated by 5-fold cross-validation and external validation. We screened three key indicators, including neutrophils, eosinophils, and IgA, for predicting severe COVID-19 and obtained a combined neutrophil, eosinophil, and IgA ratio (NEAR) model (NEU [10/liter] - 150×EOS [10/liter] + 3×IgA [g/liter]). NEAR achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.961, and when a threshold of 9 was applied, the sensitivity and specificity of the predicting model were 100% and 88.89%, respectively. Thus, NEAR is an effective index for predicting the severity of COVID-19 and can be used as a powerful tool for clinicians to make better clinical decisions. The immune inflammatory response changes rapidly with the progression of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and is responsible for clearance of the virus and further recovery from the infection. However, the intensified immune and inflammatory response in the development of the disease may lead to more serious and fatal consequences, which indicates that immune indicators have the potential to predict serious cases. Here, we identified both eosinophils and serum IgA as prognostic markers of COVID-19, which sheds light on new research directions and is worthy of further research in the scientific research field as well as clinical application. In this study, the combination of NEU count, EOS count, and IgA level was included in a new predictive model of the severity of COVID-19, which can be used as a powerful tool for better clinical decision-making.

摘要

在 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的进展过程中,免疫反应和炎症反应是迅速发展的动态事件,与疾病的严重程度有关。在这里,我们旨在基于免疫和炎症反应建立一个预测模型,以区分 COVID-19 重症患者。我们招募了 COVID-19 患者,并收集和分析了他们的人口统计学和免疫炎症反应指标。进行逻辑回归分析以确定独立预测因子,进一步用于构建预测模型。通过接收者操作特征曲线评估模型的预测性能,并计算最佳诊断阈值;通过 5 折交叉验证和外部验证进一步验证。我们筛选了三个关键指标,包括中性粒细胞、嗜酸性粒细胞和 IgA,用于预测重症 COVID-19,并获得了一个联合中性粒细胞、嗜酸性粒细胞和 IgA 比值(NEAR)模型(NEU[10/升]-150×EOS[10/升]+3×IgA[g/升])。NEAR 的曲线下面积(AUC)为 0.961,当应用阈值 9 时,预测模型的敏感性和特异性分别为 100%和 88.89%。因此,NEAR 是预测 COVID-19 严重程度的有效指标,可作为临床医生做出更好临床决策的有力工具。

严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2(SARS-CoV-2)感染进展过程中,免疫炎症反应迅速变化,负责清除病毒并进一步从感染中恢复。然而,疾病发展过程中免疫和炎症反应的加剧可能导致更严重和致命的后果,这表明免疫指标有可能预测重症病例。在这里,我们确定了嗜酸性粒细胞和血清 IgA 都是 COVID-19 的预后标志物,这为新的研究方向提供了启示,值得在科研领域以及临床应用中进一步研究。在这项研究中,我们将 NEU 计数、EOS 计数和 IgA 水平纳入 COVID-19 严重程度的新预测模型中,可作为更好临床决策的有力工具。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f55a/8513681/dbc9cb5cb027/msphere.00752-21-f001.jpg

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