Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, 3158777871, Karaj, Iran.
Department of Water and Energy, Moshanir Consultant Co., Tehran, Iran.
Sci Rep. 2021 Oct 22;11(1):20927. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-99637-7.
From the perspective of the water-energy-food (WEF) security nexus, sustainable water-related infrastructure may hinge on multi-dimensional decision-making, which is subject to some level of uncertainties imposed by internal or external sources such as climate change. It is important to note that the impact of this phenomenon is not solely limited to the changing behavior patterns of hydro-climatic variables since it can also affect the other pillars of the WEF nexus both directly and indirectly. Failing to address these issues can be costly, especially for those projects with long-lasting economic lifetimes such as hydropower systems. Ideally, a robust plan can tolerate these projected changes in climatic behavior and their associated impacts on other sectors, while maintaining an acceptable performance concerning environmental, socio-economic, and technical factors. This study, thus, aims to develop a robust multiple-objective decision-support framework to address these concerns. In principle, while this framework is sensitive to the uncertainties associated with the climate change projections, it can account for the intricacies that are commonly associated with the WEF security network. To demonstrate the applicability of this new framework, the Karkheh River basin in Iran was selected as a case study due to its critical role in ensuring water, energy, and food security of the region. In addition to the status quo, a series of climate change projections (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) were integrated into the proposed decision support framework as well. Resultantly, the mega decision matrix for this problem was composed of 56 evaluation criteria and 27 feasible alternatives. A TOPSIS/Entropy method was used to select the most robust renovation plan for a hydropower system in the basin by creating a robust and objective weighting mechanism to quantify the role of each sector in the decision-making process. Accordingly, in this case, the energy, food, and environment sectors are objectively more involved in the decision-making process. The results revealed that the role of the social aspect is practically negligible. The results also unveiled that while increasing the power plant capacity or the plant factor would be, seemingly, in favor of the energy sector, if all relevant factors are to be considered, the overall performance of the system might resultantly become sub-optimal, jeopardizing the security of other aspects of the water-energy-food nexus.
从水-能源-粮食安全关系的角度来看，可持续的水资源基础设施可能取决于多维决策，而多维决策受到气候变化等内部或外部来源的一定程度的不确定性的影响。需要注意的是，这种现象的影响不仅限于水文气候变量变化行为模式，因为它还可以直接或间接地影响水-能源-粮食安全关系的其他支柱。如果不解决这些问题，可能会付出高昂的代价，特别是对于那些具有持久经济寿命的项目，如水电站系统。理想情况下，一个稳健的计划可以承受这些预测的气候行为变化及其对其他部门的相关影响，同时在环境、社会经济和技术因素方面保持可接受的性能。因此，本研究旨在开发一个稳健的多目标决策支持框架来解决这些问题。原则上，虽然这个框架对与气候变化预测相关的不确定性很敏感，但它可以考虑到与水-能源-粮食安全关系网络相关的复杂性。为了展示这个新框架的适用性，选择伊朗的卡伦河盆地作为案例研究，因为它在确保该地区的水、能源和粮食安全方面起着关键作用。除了现状外，还将一系列气候变化预测（即 RCP2.6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）纳入所提出的决策支持框架。结果，这个问题的大型决策矩阵由 56 个评价标准和 27 个可行的备选方案组成。采用 TOPSIS/熵方法为该流域的水电站创建了一个稳健和客观的权重机制，以量化每个部门在决策过程中的作用，从而为该盆地的最稳健的改造计划选择了一个稳健的客观权重机制。因此，在这种情况下，能源、粮食和环境部门在决策过程中客观上更为重要。结果表明，社会方面的作用实际上可以忽略不计。结果还表明，尽管增加发电厂容量或工厂系数似乎有利于能源部门，但如果要考虑所有相关因素，系统的整体性能可能会因此变得次优，从而危及水-能源-粮食安全关系的其他方面的安全。
