Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Environ Pollut. 2022 Jan 1;292(Pt B):118396. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2021.118396. Epub 2021 Oct 21.
A growing number of studies report associations between air pollution and COVID-19 mortality. Most were ecological studies at the county or regional level which disregard important local variability and relied on data from only the first few months of the pandemic. Using COVID-19 deaths identified from death certificates in California, we evaluated whether long-term ambient air pollution was related to weekly COVID-19 mortality at the census tract-level during the first ∼12 months of the pandemic. Weekly COVID-19 mortality for each census tract was calculated based on geocoded death certificate data. Annual average concentrations of ambient particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM) and <10 μm (PM), nitrogen dioxide (NO), and ozone (O) over 2014-2019 were assessed for all census tracts using inverse distance-squared weighting based on data from the ambient air quality monitoring system. Negative binomial mixed models related weekly census tract COVID-19 mortality counts to a natural cubic spline for calendar week. We included adjustments for potential confounders (census tract demographic and socioeconomic factors), random effects for census tract and county, and an offset for census tract population. Data were analyzed as two study periods: Spring/Summer (March 16-October 18, 2020) and Winter (October 19, 2020-March 7, 2021). Mean (standard deviation) concentrations were 10.3 (2.1) μg/m for PM, 25.5 (7.1) μg/m for PM, 11.3 (4.0) ppb for NO, and 42.8 (6.9) ppb for O. For Spring/Summer, adjusted rate ratios per standard deviation increase were 1.13 (95% confidence interval: 1.09, 1.17) for PM, 1.16 (1.11, 1.21) for PM, 1.06 (1.02, 1.10) for NO, and 1.09 (1.04, 1.14) for O. Associations were replicated in Winter, although they were attenuated for PM and PM. Study findings support a relation between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and COVID-19 mortality. Communities with historically high pollution levels might be at higher risk of COVID-19 mortality.
越来越多的研究报告表明，空气污染与 COVID-19 死亡率之间存在关联。这些研究大多是在县或地区层面进行的生态研究，没有考虑到重要的局部变异性，并且仅依赖于大流行最初几个月的数据。我们利用加利福尼亚州死亡证明中确定的 COVID-19 死亡人数，评估了在大流行的前约 12 个月内，长期环境空气污染与普查区层面每周 COVID-19 死亡率之间的关系。根据地理编码的死亡证明数据，计算了每个普查区的每周 COVID-19 死亡率。使用基于环境空气质量监测系统数据的倒数平方加权法，评估了 2014-2019 年所有普查区的环境细颗粒物（PM）和<10 μm（PM）、二氧化氮（NO）和臭氧（O）的年平均浓度。每周普查区 COVID-19 死亡率计数与日历周的自然三次样条相关的负二项混合模型。我们包括了对潜在混杂因素（普查区人口统计学和社会经济因素）的调整、普查区和县的随机效应，以及普查区人口的偏移量。数据分析分为两个研究期：春季/夏季（2020 年 3 月 16 日至 10 月 18 日）和冬季（2020 年 10 月 19 日至 2021 年 3 月 7 日）。PM 的平均（标准差）浓度为 10.3（2.1）μg/m，PM 的平均（标准差）浓度为 25.5（7.1）μg/m，NO 的平均（标准差）浓度为 11.3（4.0）ppb，O 的平均（标准差）浓度为 42.8（6.9）ppb。对于春季/夏季，每标准偏差增加的调整后比率比为 1.13（95%置信区间：1.09，1.17），PM 为 1.16（1.11，1.21），PM 为 1.06（1.02，1.10），NO 为 1.09（1.04，1.14），O 为 1.09（1.04，1.14）。冬季的研究结果得到了复制，尽管 PM 和 PM 的关联减弱了。研究结果支持长期环境空气污染暴露与 COVID-19 死亡率之间存在关联。历史上污染水平较高的社区可能面临更高的 COVID-19 死亡率风险。
